Cloud Y
Cloud Y is an FRM-certified economics and finance journalist with 12+ years of experience covering global markets and macroeconomics. From interviewing Nobel laureates to breaking down M&A trends for major banks, Cloud’s work focuses on making complex economic data and concepts accessible. His writing has appeared in the Hoover Digest and iMoney.
UK house prices continue to fall in May, Nationwide reports
UK average property prices were 3.4% lower compared to the previous year, accelerating the annual fall of 2.7% in April.
UK CPI inflation eases to 8.7% but food inflation still close to 20%
The headline CPI figure slowed down to 8.7% in April, from 10.1% in March, while core inflation accelerated to 6.8%, from 6.2%
US PCE inflation slows further in March with looming recession concern
US PCE price index decelerated further in March with the year over year rate dropped to merely 4.2%, down from 5.1% in February.
UK inflation remains above 10% as food prices continues rapid rise
The UK CPI rose 10.1% in the year to March, still remain in double digits even though analysts expected the annual rate to fall to 9.8%
US CPI decelerates further in March to close 2 year low
Consumer price index grew for March 5% over the past year, reaching the lowest level since May 2021. Nonetheless, Core CPI recorded a 5.6% increase, up from 5.5% in February.
Resilient US job market continues easing trend
Non-farm payroll booked an increase of 236,000 in March, a further deceleration from February's 326,000, which was revised upward from the preliminary figure of 311,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' establishment survey.
US inflation eases further in February as energy prices drop, PCE index shows
Inflation in the US showed further signs of easing as the yearly growth of core PCE price index slowed to 4.6% in February, while the headline number increased by 5%.
Fed-preferred PCE price index accelerated in January
Core PCE inflation rose 4.7% in January YoY, beating expectation of 4.4% increase. The Fed-preferred price index rose 0.6% MoM compared to the market expectation of 0.5%.
Market sees Bank of England to raise rate to 4% by May
The financial market expecting the UK policy interest rate UK will break 4% by May, more than double the current level of 1.75%. Financial Times reported.
The sizes of Sept rate hike to be decided on upcoming data, Fed officials...
Ahead of Jay Powell's keynote speech in Jackson Hole on Friday, two Fed officials said more rate hikes are still warranted, but they said it's too early to decide on the size rate increase yet.
Fed’s swap lines help easing Covid-era global dollar shortage
Countries with swap line arrangement with Federal Reserve, be it the standing ones or temporary, saw smaller increases in spread during the initial pandemic stress period.
US bans energy imports from Russia
"Russian oil will no longer be acceptable at US ports," President Biden said.
World Bank seeks to provide further USD 350 million loans to Ukraine
The World Bank is aiming to fast track the process to provide Ukraine an additional USD 350 million loan in the next few days, or as soon as the end of this week, Reuters cited people familiar with the plans.
Sberbank’s European subsidiaries placed under payment moratorium amid sanctions
EU’s Single Resolution Board has enforced payment moratorium on three European subsidiaries of Russian bank Sberbank, which is under US-led sanction, and is accessing whether any resolution action would be need to to protect public interest.
Interview with Paul Romer on large scale Covid testing – Transcript
Edited transcript of our interview with Paul Romer, on why the US urgently to scale up testing for Covid-19 and why he thinks the covid-crisis amounts an intellectual failure
US needs large-scale Covid testing urgently: Nobel winning economist Paul Romer
In an exclusive interview with EconReporter on Tuesday, Romer, co-recipient of the 2018 Nobel Prize in Economics Science, urged the US to adopt large-scale testing immediately to halt this most detrimental economic slump ever since the Great Depression in the 1930s.
How to benefit from others’ QE — Hong Kong Linked Exchange Rate’s lesson
What if I tell you, behind the boring news headline, there is actually a wonkish story about how the Hong Kong central bank took advantage of the monetary easing by the Fed in the last 12 year and created a new set of policy options that it can now use to actively mange the inflows created by the new round Fed easing under the Great Lockdown.
How to use the Fed’s FIMA Repo — the case of Hong Kong
Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the de facto central bank of Hong Kong, announced on April 22 that it will utilize the Fed's FIMA Repo facility to borrow USD 10 billion of cash.
ECB on impact of Coronavirus
Luis de Guindos, vice president of the European Central Bank, depicted the coronavirus as an additional " layer of uncertainty to global and euro area growth prospects," in his speech at the European Economics and Financial Centre on March 3.
Helicopter Money is here in Hong Kong? Well…
“The money helicopter has arrived,” Claire Jones writes in her FT Alphaville post, citing Hong Kong Finance Secretary’s announcement of a handout of HKD...
Macroprudential Policy – how does it differ from rate hikes?
Macroprudential policies, it is argued, are more targeted and can complement central bank’s use of interest rate policy.
How often companies in Eurozone change their prices?
An ECB survey found that the retailers review and change their prices most often, while consumer and business service firms adjust their pricing the least often. Firms in the manufacturing sector, meanwhile, have a price adjustment frequency somewhere in between the above sectors
Akerlof on Keynesian-neoclassical synthesis’s departure from Keynes
George Akerlof explains how the Keynesian- neoclassical synthesis dominated the field, and what problems this dominance resulted.
A Pitfall of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
In recent months, the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index has risen to a level much higher than periods around the 911 Terrorist Attack or the 2008 Financial Crisis, hence the conclusion that the economic policy is unprecedently uncertain now.
But here is why you might not have to worry.
Hong Kong Linked Exchange Rate & HKD-USD interest rate differential
HKD tends to be on the strong side (closer to HKD 7.75 per USD) when the interest rate differential is positive (HIBOR > LIBOR).
Why the Fed announces “not-QE” Treasuries purchase program?
Federal Reserve announced yesterday that it will start purchasing Treasury bills from Oct 15 (Tuesday) until at least the second quarter of next year.
The problem with monetarist’s view of inflation
Long-run stability of the velocity, or the filpside of it, money demand, however, is not a empirically founded assumption.
The repo spike is not liquidity crisis; it is a crisis for Fed’s floor...
The floor system needs a cap on top of it. The sooner the Fed realizes it, the better they will be prepared for the coming financial turmoil.
Is there a Zero Lower Bound?
In a recent research, four European Central Bank economists found that negative interest rate policy in the eurozone can encourage banks to increase lending and encourage cooperations to increase investments.
That is, contrary to what macroeconomics models usually predict, interest rate policy can still has stimulative effect even the zero lower bound is reached.
When will Hong Kong’s Interest Rates Align With the US?
If you think the interest rate gap between Hong Kong and US is a market phenomenon, think again. HK Monetary Authority has a much bigger role than you think
Signs of Eurozone Recession is More Apparent
The latest Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for the two largest economies, Germany and France, is showing a clear sign of looming recession.
Japan’s Inflation Rate is still Far From BOJ’s 2 Percent Target
Japan's core inflation rate was on 0.7 percent in February, remaining distant from the Bank of Japan's 2 percent target.
Phillips Curve is Not a Straight Line…
A story about three economists agree with the prevailing consensus that the Phillips Curve of the US is flattened in the last few decades on the one hand; and dispute the idea that the Phillips Curve is dead on the other.
FedSpeak Might Not Have Much Effects on Public’s Inflation Expectation
In a recent NBER working paper "Monetary Policy Communications and their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations", economists Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber tried to find out how the household's expectation for inflation change with regard to the information they received.
Americans have not been this optimistic about their financial situation — for the last...
69% of American is financially optimistic, reaching the highest level for the last 16 years.
Germany’s GDP Data might have been Distorted by Questionable Data
Germany's GDP data for 2018 might have been distorted by some questionable data provided by the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry.
OECD governments borrowing expected to hit record $11tn
Gross borrowing of OECD governments from the markets is set to surpass $11tn this year. This would be a new record, above the current record of $10.9 trillion set in 2010.
Derivatives’s Credit Terms in Eurozone Tighten Further
The latest SESFOD shows that the credit terms offered to counterparties for both securities financing and OTC derivative transactions is further tightened.
Most of China’s Foreign Currency Credit are in USD
According to the data from BIS global liquidity indicators, as of September 2018, most foreign currency credits to China is still denominated with US dollar.
The Rise of Non-Bank US Dollar Credit Continues
The latest BIS global liquidity indicators showed that the share of Non-bank USD denominated credit continued its rising trend.
The Most Important Question Jay Powell Need to Answer – Where is the Saturated...
The most important question for the 30th Jan Fed meeting balance sheet policy, because it is also most underrated by the market.
How will the shutdown impact GDP growth?
The effect is shown differently on nominal and real GDP
How many US Public Debts out there? Who own them?
According to the data shown in the Congressional Budget Office‘s latest The Budget and Economic Outlook: From 2019 to 2029, there are $15.8 trillion US federal debt held by the public at the end of 2018.
Debt Growth Rate, not Level, Predicts Slowdown, says BoE’s Broadbent
An important point Broadbent has illustrated is that a high absolute level of debt is not the most worrying sign of economic slowdown. It is the growth rate of debt that we should heed.
Currency Zones through the last 50 years
The figure above is from a recent BIS working paper "A key currency view of global imbalances". It shows the currency geography as of four dates from the last days of Bretton Woods until now: 1968, 1985, 2001 and 2017.
IMF Growth Projections and Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts
In a recent IMF working paper "Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections", economist Klaus-Peter Hellwig examined IMF's World Economic Forecasts (WEO) and check if the forecast model suffer from the problem of overfitting.
Bank Equity and Banking Crises
In a recent study "Bank Equity and Banking Crises" by Matthew Baron (of Cornell University), Emil Verner (MIT Sloan), and Wei Xiong (Princeton University), the three economists developed a comprehensive database of bank equity prices and banking crises with a full-sample of 46 countries from 1870-2016. They try to understand the dynamic between bank equity decline and banking crises.
Japan exports (Dec 2018) recorded largest fall in two year
Japanese exports record a year-on-year drop of 3.8% in December 2018, the most substantial shrinkage since October 2016.
Nonbank Lending
In their recent working paper "Nonbank Lending", economists Sergey Chernenko, Isil Erel, and Robert Prilmeier provided an insightful overview of the sources and terms of private debt financing during the post-crisis period.
The Non‐Bank Credit Cycle
In a new working paper "The Non‐Bank Credit Cycle", researchers Esti Kemp, René van Stralen, Alexandros Vardoulakis, and Peter Wierts tried to look into the cyclical properties of non‐bank credit and its relevance for financial stability.
