How will the shutdown impact GDP growth?
The effect is shown differently on nominal and real GDP
Canada’s inflation rate slides to 1.8% amid a disinflationary base effect from last year’s sales tax holiday
Canada's inflation rate eased to 1.8% in February, the lowest since July last year.
The deceleration in headline CPI year-over-year growth rate can mostly be explained by the base effect resulted from the GST/HST holiday last year.
US labor market cools down further with job openings, hires, quits all drop in...
The March US job opening and labor turnover (JOLT) report shows that job opening rate, hire rate and quit rate all dropped marginally in March, showing further cool down in the US labor market.
US CPI down to 2.9% in July as disinflation continues
US headline CPI down to 2.9% in July, lowest since March 2021
If the Fed ends QT too soon, it risks discrediting its ceiling tools
Analysts are expecting the Federal Reserve to announce the end of quantitative tightening (QT) at the upcoming meeting this week. The speculation is fueled by Chairman Jerome Powell's speech earlier this month in which he mentioned the supply of reserves may reach an "ample" level "in coming months."
Japan’s Inflation Rate is still Far From BOJ’s 2 Percent Target
Japan's core inflation rate was on 0.7 percent in February, remaining distant from the Bank of Japan's 2 percent target.
Canada unemployment rate rises back to 6.7% in February amid 83,900 job losses
Canada Labor Market——February 2026
Unemployment Rate: 6.7%;
Total Jobs MoM Change: -83,900;
Full-Time Jobs MoM Change: -108,400;
Part-Time Jobs MoM Change : 24,500
September FOMC Meeting: The Potential Dissenters
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points this week. This has been the baseline market assumption since Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, in which he proclaimed, “the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance."
The question is, how many dissenting votes will Powell face in this meeting?
Fed’s Bowman still sees ‘upside risks’ to US inflation
Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman is worried about reacceleration in cost of living, saying that she 'still see some upside risks to inflation'
World Bank seeks to provide further USD 350 million loans to Ukraine
The World Bank is aiming to fast track the process to provide Ukraine an additional USD 350 million loan in the next few days, or as soon as the end of this week, Reuters cited people familiar with the plans.
US gains 272,000 jobs in May, blows past expectations
US gained 272,000 nonfarm employment in May blew past market expectations of an 185,000 increase. Meanwhile, unemployment rate rose to 4%, which is the highest level since November 2021.
US PCE inflation holds at 2.7% in April as market expected
US PCE inflation held at 2.7% YoY in April 2024 while core inflation maintained its pace at 2.8% for the third months,
G20 finance officials to discuss debt, funding to low-income countries in India
G20's economic officials will gather in India next week to discuss ways to boost lending to developing countries from multilateral institutions and to reform the international debt system, Reuters cited unnamed Indian officials.
First sighting of Trump II tariff revenue surge
The US government on April 22 received USD 11.7 billion from customer duties in a single day, the first time we can observe a substantial increase in import duties revenue resulted from the new of tariff from the second Trump administration.
UK sees both unemployment rate, wage growth drop in June
Unemployment rate in the UK decreased to 4.2% at the three months to June, against a market expectation of rising from the May reading of 4.4% to 4.5%, the Office for National Statistics reported Tuesday.
Some Bank of Canada officials worried half point cut might signal economic trouble
Some Bank of Canada officials expressed worries during the last policy meeting that an "unusual" 50-basis-point might be "interpreted as a sign of economic trouble" and led to expectations of further outsized cuts, the meeting deliberations summary shows.
How often companies in Eurozone change their prices?
An ECB survey found that the retailers review and change their prices most often, while consumer and business service firms adjust their pricing the least often. Firms in the manufacturing sector, meanwhile, have a price adjustment frequency somewhere in between the above sectors
Resilient US job market continues easing trend
Non-farm payroll booked an increase of 236,000 in March, a further deceleration from February's 326,000, which was revised upward from the preliminary figure of 311,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' establishment survey.
Currency Zones through the last 50 years
The figure above is from a recent BIS working paper "A key currency view of global imbalances". It shows the currency geography as of four dates from the last days of Bretton Woods until now: 1968, 1985, 2001 and 2017.
ECB cuts rate to 3.5% as it scales down growth forecast
The European Central Bank reduced the deposit facility rate, its policy interest rate anchor, by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.5%, as the central bank slightly lowered its economic growth forecast.
Canada inflation drops to 2.9% in January
Canada's headline CPI rose 2.9% in January, hitting Bank of Canada's inflation-control target range of 1% - 3% for the first time since March 2021.
Canada inflation rebounds to 2.9% in May
CPI inflation in Canada rebounded to 2.9% YoY and 0.31% MoM in May 2024
US PCE inflation drops to 2.5% as disinflationary trend continues
Inflation in the US cooled off further to 2.5% over the year to the end of June, according to the latest reading of US Bureau of Economic Analysis's PCE price index.
US consumers continues to drive strong GDP growth
US GDP increased by more than 2.8% at an annualized rate in Q3, supported by continued acceleration the growth of personal consumption expenditures.
Canada retail sales up 1.5% MoM in June, likely followed by 0.8% drop in...
Canada retail sales increased 1.46% month-over-month in June while core retail sales, which exclude gasoline and auto sales, was up 1.95%.
US nonfarm payroll beats expectations in June amid signs of cooling off
US nonfarm payroll increased by 206,000 in June, beating market expectation of 190,000, amid signs that job growth in cooling off as the the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down the May and April by a combined 111,000 in its report released Friday.
BoE holds rate at 5.25% with ‘some’ officials signal eagerness to cut
Bank of England held its policy interest rate at 5.25% with a 7-2 vote amongst officials at its Monetary Policy Committee.
Fed’s Daly, Kashkari support rate cut talks in September meeting
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari are both open to discussions about cutting Fed Fund Rate target at the up coming Federal Reserve meeting
US payroll growth in Jan beats expectations
US nonfarm payroll increased 353,000 and Unemployment rate as 3.7% in January
Bank of Canada not sure about exact level of neutral rate, Macklem says
Bank of Canada isn't entirely sure what the country's natural rate of interest is and the central bank will have to discover it over time, said Governor Tiff Macklem.
US Retail sales up just 0.1%, still beats expectations
Retail sales in the US increased just 0.05% on a monthly basis in August, down from the outsized 1.15% growth in July but still beats market expectation of -0.2%
UK Economic Inactivity and Long-term Sickness
Post-covid trend of the economic inactivity in the UK
UK inflation remains above 10% as food prices continues rapid rise
The UK CPI rose 10.1% in the year to March, still remain in double digits even though analysts expected the annual rate to fall to 9.8%
Canada unemployment rate surges to 7.1% in Aug
The unemployment rate in Canada has risen to 7.1% in August, the highest level since May 2016 outside of the pandemic era, StatCan reported Friday.
Most of China’s Foreign Currency Credit are in USD
According to the data from BIS global liquidity indicators, as of September 2018, most foreign currency credits to China is still denominated with US dollar.
Canada GDP shrinks 0.4% in Q2, is it all gloomy?
Canada's GDP contracted by 0.4% (or 1.6% annualized) over the second quarter, amid a 7.5% (26.7% annualized) drop in exports as the impact of US-imposed tariffs started to bite.
Fed to let Bank Term Funding Program expires on March 11
The US central bank also made an adjustment of the program's terms, setting minimum interest rate level at the interest of reserve balance, effective immediately, to block an arbitrage opportunity that banks have been taking advantage of.
How many US Public Debts out there? Who own them?
According to the data shown in the Congressional Budget Office‘s latest The Budget and Economic Outlook: From 2019 to 2029, there are $15.8 trillion US federal debt held by the public at the end of 2018.
Canada inflation slows further to 2.8%; rent continues to rise
Canada's CPI rose 2.78% in February, a further slowdown from the 2.86% increase in the January
US Job openings increases to 8.1 million in May, JOLT report shows
Job openings increased to 8.14 million in May while the number of hirings in the month was 5.78 million
UK retail sales drops 1.2% in June due to poor weather, election uncertainty
Monthly growth rate of UK retail sales volume fell 1.2% in June, after a 2.9% increase in the previous month.
US initial jobless claims falls to 233,000, lower than expected
The number of people filed their initial claim for unemployment insurance benefits in the US fell to 233,000 in the week ending August 3.
US CPI inflation rebounds in Dec to 3.4%
Core CPI inflation continues to decelerate to 3.93%
US gains 339,000 jobs while unemployment rate rises to 3.7%
Employers in the US added 339,000 jobs in May, but at the same time 440,000 more people reported they were unemployed
Fed-preferred PCE price index accelerated in January
Core PCE inflation rose 4.7% in January YoY, beating expectation of 4.4% increase. The Fed-preferred price index rose 0.6% MoM compared to the market expectation of 0.5%.
Market sees Bank of England to raise rate to 4% by May
The financial market expecting the UK policy interest rate UK will break 4% by May, more than double the current level of 1.75%. Financial Times reported.
Fed projects plan for front-loaded monetary easing, kicks off with 50 bps cut
The Federal Reserve lowered its fed fund rate target by 50 basis points to the range of 4.75 - 5%, with governor Michelle Bowman dissented the decision in favor of a smaller a quarter percentage point cut.
Derivatives’s Credit Terms in Eurozone Tighten Further
The latest SESFOD shows that the credit terms offered to counterparties for both securities financing and OTC derivative transactions is further tightened.
US CPI decelerates further in March to close 2 year low
Consumer price index grew for March 5% over the past year, reaching the lowest level since May 2021. Nonetheless, Core CPI recorded a 5.6% increase, up from 5.5% in February.
