Bank of England raises interest rate by 0.5%—notes on the Bank’s decision
Bank of England on Thursday decided to raise its benchmark interest rate by 0.5% to 5%, larger than the market expectation of a 0.25% increase. The decision followed Office of Nation Statistics' publication of a 8.7% CPI inflation reading for the year to May on Wednesday.
Market sees Bank of England to raise rate to 4% by May
The financial market expecting the UK policy interest rate UK will break 4% by May, more than double the current level of 1.75%. Financial Times reported.
Canada unemployment rate surges to 7.1% in Aug
The unemployment rate in Canada has risen to 7.1% in August, the highest level since May 2016 outside of the pandemic era, StatCan reported Friday.
Germany’s GDP Data might have been Distorted by Questionable Data
Germany's GDP data for 2018 might have been distorted by some questionable data provided by the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry.
US Retail sales up just 0.1%, still beats expectations
Retail sales in the US increased just 0.05% on a monthly basis in August, down from the outsized 1.15% growth in July but still beats market expectation of -0.2%
Bank of Canada July meeting minutes reveal growing concerns on slowing labor market, consumption
Bank of Canada officials were increasingly concerned about potential risk of consumption slowdown amid growing slack in the labor market and excess supply in the economy when they cut interest rate during July 24 meeting, according to the central bank's summary of deliberations.
UK inflation holds at 4% in January
CPI: 4.0% YoY (Dec: 4.0%); Core CPI: 5.1% YoY (Dec: 5.1%)
Will QT finish before Powell’s chairman term ends?
Quantitative tightening (QT) may reach its end point "in the coming months," said Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in a speech last week.
What does it mean? Will QT finish before Powell's chairman term ends?
US goods trade deficit hits all-time high in 2025—What does it mean for Q4...
US trade deficit continues to widen in December after hitting recent year low in October. The total import was USD 70.3 billion higher than export in the last month of 2025, according to the US Census Bureau.
Fed-preferred PCE price index accelerated in January
Core PCE inflation rose 4.7% in January YoY, beating expectation of 4.4% increase. The Fed-preferred price index rose 0.6% MoM compared to the market expectation of 0.5%.
Fed to let Bank Term Funding Program expires on March 11
The US central bank also made an adjustment of the program's terms, setting minimum interest rate level at the interest of reserve balance, effective immediately, to block an arbitrage opportunity that banks have been taking advantage of.
Signs of Eurozone Recession is More Apparent
The latest Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for the two largest economies, Germany and France, is showing a clear sign of looming recession.
Bank of Canada Watch—Dec 2025 Meeting
The Bank of Canada on Wednesday decided to hold policy rate at 2.25% unchanged, as expected by markets. However, what is a notable is the Bank continues to show dovish bias given the recent rebound in economic data.
US GDP grows at 2.8% in Q2 as consumer spending remains strong
US GDP grew at a 2.8% annualized rate in Q2, supported by acceleration in consumer spending, increase in nonresidential fixed investment as well as an upturn in private inventory investment
Dallas Fed’s Logan cites neutral rate uncertainty as reason to ‘proceed cautiously’ on rate...
Lorie Logan, president of Dallas Fed, expressed worry about uncertainty surrounding the exact level of neutral rate of interest and hinted at the risk that the Federal Reserve's policy rate might already near the point which further rate may starts to fuel inflation again
Eurozone economy shows resilience with 0.4% GDP increase in Q3
Eurozone GDP quarterly growth rate sped up to 0.4% in Q3, an upside surprise compared to an expectation of 0.2% increase, countering widespread worries that the currency bloc is sliding into economic stagnation.
Fed’s Bowman still sees ‘upside risks’ to US inflation
Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman is worried about reacceleration in cost of living, saying that she 'still see some upside risks to inflation'
Bank of Canada holds rate at 5%, cites persistent underlying inflation
Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 5% after its March monetary policy meeting, citing "risks to the outlook for inflation, particularly the persistence in underlying inflation."
The sizes of Sept rate hike to be decided on upcoming data, Fed officials...
Ahead of Jay Powell's keynote speech in Jackson Hole on Friday, two Fed officials said more rate hikes are still warranted, but they said it's too early to decide on the size rate increase yet.
Derivatives’s Credit Terms in Eurozone Tighten Further
The latest SESFOD shows that the credit terms offered to counterparties for both securities financing and OTC derivative transactions is further tightened.
US Job openings increases to 8.1 million in May, JOLT report shows
Job openings increased to 8.14 million in May while the number of hirings in the month was 5.78 million
US gains 339,000 jobs while unemployment rate rises to 3.7%
Employers in the US added 339,000 jobs in May, but at the same time 440,000 more people reported they were unemployed
World Bank seeks to provide further USD 350 million loans to Ukraine
The World Bank is aiming to fast track the process to provide Ukraine an additional USD 350 million loan in the next few days, or as soon as the end of this week, Reuters cited people familiar with the plans.
Eurozone inflation drops to 6.1% in May, lower than expected
Annual consumer prices in the Eurozone rose by 6.1% YoY in May, down from 7% in April.
ECB cuts rate to 3.5% as it scales down growth forecast
The European Central Bank reduced the deposit facility rate, its policy interest rate anchor, by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.5%, as the central bank slightly lowered its economic growth forecast.
UK Economic Inactivity and Long-term Sickness
Post-covid trend of the economic inactivity in the UK
Canada inflation slows further to 2.8%; rent continues to rise
Canada's CPI rose 2.78% in February, a further slowdown from the 2.86% increase in the January
Canadian’s average carried over credit card balances highest in 14 years, Equifax reports
The average carried over credit card balances for Canadian consumers topped CAD 4,300 in Q2, reaching the highest level since 2007, Equifax Canada said in its latest Market Pulse Consumer Credit Trends and Insights Report.
OECD governments borrowing expected to hit record $11tn
Gross borrowing of OECD governments from the markets is set to surpass $11tn this year. This would be a new record, above the current record of $10.9 trillion set in 2010.
Some Bank of Canada officials worried half point cut might signal economic trouble
Some Bank of Canada officials expressed worries during the last policy meeting that an "unusual" 50-basis-point might be "interpreted as a sign of economic trouble" and led to expectations of further outsized cuts, the meeting deliberations summary shows.
Currency Zones through the last 50 years
The figure above is from a recent BIS working paper "A key currency view of global imbalances". It shows the currency geography as of four dates from the last days of Bretton Woods until now: 1968, 1985, 2001 and 2017.
US Trade Deficit Stabilizes as Post-Tariff ‘Front-Loading’ Fades
US trade deficit rebounded to USD 56.8 billion in November after recording a USD 29.2 billion shortfall, the smallest monthly since 2009, in the previous month, the US Census Bureau reported Thursday.
Americans have not been this optimistic about their financial situation — for the last...
69% of American is financially optimistic, reaching the highest level for the last 16 years.
Hong Kong soaks up HKD 30 billion from interbank market to defend currency peg
Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened twice in the foreign exchange market on Thursday (July 3) to soak up a total of HKD 29.6 billion from the city's interbank liquidity market, as HKD exchange rate fell toward the weak end of its official trading band.
If the Fed ends QT too soon, it risks discrediting its ceiling tools
Analysts are expecting the Federal Reserve to announce the end of quantitative tightening (QT) at the upcoming meeting this week. The speculation is fueled by Chairman Jerome Powell's speech earlier this month in which he mentioned the supply of reserves may reach an "ample" level "in coming months."
How often companies in Eurozone change their prices?
An ECB survey found that the retailers review and change their prices most often, while consumer and business service firms adjust their pricing the least often. Firms in the manufacturing sector, meanwhile, have a price adjustment frequency somewhere in between the above sectors
Canada inflation drops back to 2.7% in June
Annual inflation rate in Canada eased back to less than 2.7% in June after a upshot in the previous month, according to Statistics Canada's CPI report.
Bank of Canada holds rate at 5% after September meeting
Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark interest rate at 5% but warned about persistent underlying inflationary pressure.
US PCE price index shows zero monthly inflation in May
US PCE price index showed 0% monthly inflation in May, bolstering market narrative that consumption sentiment has weakened in Q2 and helped easing inflationary pressure in the US economy.
US April Jobs Report – Unemployment rate rises back to 3.9% as Nonfarm Payroll...
Nonfarm payroll increased 175,000 in April, a significant reduction from 315,000 in March and fell short of the market expectation of 243,000. Meanwhile, US unemployment rebounded to 3.9%
US CPI inflation rebounds in Dec to 3.4%
Core CPI inflation continues to decelerate to 3.93%
US gains 272,000 jobs in May, blows past expectations
US gained 272,000 nonfarm employment in May blew past market expectations of an 185,000 increase. Meanwhile, unemployment rate rose to 4%, which is the highest level since November 2021.
Canada GDP rebound masks lackluster domestic demand
The Canadian economy saw a significant rebound in the third quarter. A 0.65% expansion in the quarter was more than enough to recover the downwardly revised 0.47% contraction in the previous second quarter.
Canada inflation drops to 2.9% in January
Canada's headline CPI rose 2.9% in January, hitting Bank of Canada's inflation-control target range of 1% - 3% for the first time since March 2021.
Fed projects plan for front-loaded monetary easing, kicks off with 50 bps cut
The Federal Reserve lowered its fed fund rate target by 50 basis points to the range of 4.75 - 5%, with governor Michelle Bowman dissented the decision in favor of a smaller a quarter percentage point cut.
Canada GDP Q3 2025
While GDP rebounded by 0.65% in Q3 (2.6% annualized), the expansion was driven almost entirely by a 2.2% drop in imports.
Most of China’s Foreign Currency Credit are in USD
According to the data from BIS global liquidity indicators, as of September 2018, most foreign currency credits to China is still denominated with US dollar.
US core CPI rises 3.6% as expected
US CPI rose 3.35% in the year to April, as expected by analysts. Meanwhile, core CPI, which strips out prices of food and energy, increased 3.61%, also as market expected.
Resilient US job market continues easing trend
Non-farm payroll booked an increase of 236,000 in March, a further deceleration from February's 326,000, which was revised upward from the preliminary figure of 311,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' establishment survey.
The Rise of Non-Bank US Dollar Credit Continues
The latest BIS global liquidity indicators showed that the share of Non-bank USD denominated credit continued its rising trend.
