Phillips Curve is Not a Straight Line…
A story about three economists agree with the prevailing consensus that the Phillips Curve of the US is flattened in the last few decades on the one hand; and dispute the idea that the Phillips Curve is dead on the other.
The Non‐Bank Credit Cycle
In a new working paper "The Non‐Bank Credit Cycle", researchers Esti Kemp, René van Stralen, Alexandros Vardoulakis, and Peter Wierts tried to look into the cyclical properties of non‐bank credit and its relevance for financial stability.
The sovereign-bank “doom loop”
Since the Euro crisis, investors and policymakers are well aware of the so-called "doom loop" between the banking system and the sovereign. That is, a crisis originating in the banking system (sovereign) will weaken the sovereign (banking system), which in turn will worsen the banking (sovereign) crisis itself.
In a recent ECB discussion Paper "Managing the sovereign-bank nexus", the 7 economists - Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Caio Ferreira, Nigel Jenkinson, Luc Laeven, Alberto Martin, Camelia Minoiu, and Alexander Popov - coauthored the paper suggested that the banks and sovereigns are linked by three interacting channels:
Should Federal Reserve use scenario analysis to handle trade war uncertainty?
The Fed is currently in a "wait and see" mode in deciding what is the reaction to Trump's trade policy. But is it possible for the Fed to be a bit more proactive than merely saying "we will be able to update you further when we know more details"?
Enters scenario analysis.
The repo spike is not liquidity crisis; it is a crisis for Fed’s floor...
The floor system needs a cap on top of it. The sooner the Fed realizes it, the better they will be prepared for the coming financial turmoil.
The Fed’s Interest Rate Policy Regime – Corridor System or Floor System
The Fed has changed it interest rate policy regime since 2008, from the so-called Corridor system, to the Floor system it is using right now. What is the different?
IMF Growth Projections and Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts
In a recent IMF working paper "Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections", economist Klaus-Peter Hellwig examined IMF's World Economic Forecasts (WEO) and check if the forecast model suffer from the problem of overfitting.
What is Payment on Reserves Process?
The payment on reserve process proposed by Robert Hall and Ricardo Reis is a way of remunerating reserves which would give the central bank...
Canada GDP: an Up-to-date checkup on the Canadian economy
While GDP rebounded by 0.65% in Q3 (2.6% annualized), the expansion was driven almost entirely by a 2.2% drop in imports.
No, PPI is not a measure of wholesale inflation
A standard perception of PPI is that it is a measure of "wholesale inflation", but the BLS told EconReporter that this interpretation of PPI is not at all correct.
