‘Unusually low’ Hong Kong interest rate is a policy choice*

A careful study of Hong Kong's currency peg that explain why the current low-interest rate environment can be interpreted as a result of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's policy choice.

Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices

A new working paper from the IMF which tries to assess the impact of media sentiment on equity markets.

CoCo issuance and bank fragility

A series of papers by Stefan Avdjiev, Bilyana Bogdanova, Patrick Bolton, Wei Jiang, and Anastasia Kartasheva on this topic is highly recommended.

Hysteresis – An Underrated Macroeconomics Question

Hysteresis is referred to the hypothesis that recessions may have permanent effects on the level of output relative to trend.

Is tipflation even part of inflation?

Or, to frame the question in a more technical way: is tipflation even counted as part of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation?

What is FTPL (Fiscal Theory of Price Level)?

The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level says that money has value because the government accepts it for taxes, and inflation is fundamentally a fiscal phenomenon

IMF Growth Projections and Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts

In a recent IMF working paper "Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections", economist Klaus-Peter Hellwig examined IMF's World Economic Forecasts (WEO) and check if the forecast model suffer from the problem of overfitting.

Trump appointees will get Fed board majority when Powell is gone – and it...

Trump-appointed Fed governors will hold a board majority by the time Powell steps down as a governor. And that could matter a lot.

What is Hysteresis?

Hysteresis is referred to the hypothesis that recessions may have permanent effects on the level of output relative to trend.

The problem with monetarist’s view of inflation

Long-run stability of the velocity, or the filpside of it, money demand, however, is not a empirically founded assumption.

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