Sunday, May 9, 2021

Financial Markets Face Fresh Wave of Political Uncertainty… generated by one Hong Kong Newspaper?

In recent months, the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index has risen to a level much higher than periods around the 911 Terrorist Attack or the 2008 Financial Crisis, hence the conclusion that the economic policy is unprecedently uncertain now.But here is why you might not have to worry.

What is FTPL (Fiscal Theory of Price Level)?

The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level says that money has value because the government accepts it for taxes, and inflation is fundamentally a fiscal phenomenon

Why the Fed announces “not-QE” Treasuries purchase program?

Federal Reserve announced yesterday that it will start purchasing Treasury bills from Oct 15 (Tuesday) until at least the second quarter of next year.

What is New Keynesian DSGE Models?

DSGE is a methodology for a wide range of macroeconomics models. One of the most common formulations is the so-called New Keynesian model. New Keynesian economics can be interpreted as an effort to combine the methodological tools developed by real business cycle theory with some of the central tenets of Keynesian economics tracing back to Keynes’ own General Theory.

Bernanke on Trump’s Fiscal Policy 

Ben Bernanke has a new blog post on Brookings. The focus of the post is to explain "the large difference between the reactions of the Fed and the markets to the change in fiscal prospects since the election"

IMF Growth Projections and Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts

In a recent IMF working paper "Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections", economist Klaus-Peter Hellwig examined IMF's World Economic Forecasts (WEO) and check if the forecast model suffer from the problem of overfitting.

100% Reserve System is coming? – The Swiss Sovereign Money Referendum

The Swiss sovereign-money referendum, also known as the Sovereign-Money Initiative, which aims to creates a safe and crisis-free, yet experimental, banking system in Switzerland will be held on 10th June.

Most of China’s Foreign Currency Credit are in USD

According to the data from BIS global liquidity indicators, as of September 2018, most foreign currency credits to China is still denominated with US dollar.

Economic Policy Uncertainty in Turkey

The latest addition to the Economic Policy Uncertainty index (EPU). This time is on Turkey, the country who's economy is negatively impacted by policy uncertainty in 2018.

When will Hong Kong’s Interest Rates Align With the US?

If you think the interest rate gap between Hong Kong and US is a market phenomenon, think again. HK Monetary Authority has a much bigger role than you think