‘Unusually low’ Hong Kong interest rate is a policy choice*

A careful study of Hong Kong's currency peg that explain why the current low-interest rate environment can be interpreted as a result of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's policy choice.

What is the Saturated Level of Reserves?

The Saturated Level of Reserves or efficient level of reserves, is the point which the opportunity cost for banks to hold reserves disappears, and became indifferent towards holding more reserves. The reserve demand curve beyond this point becomes close to horizontal.

Blanchard’s “Policy Model” v “Theory Model”

Back in November last year, Professor Olivier Blanchard discussed with me about his view that there should be four types of macroeconomics, and "theory...

Bernanke on Trump’s Fiscal Policy 

Ben Bernanke has a new blog post on Brookings. The focus of the post is to explain "the large difference between the reactions of the Fed and the markets to the change in fiscal prospects since the election"

Dallas Fed’s Logan cites neutral rate uncertainty as reason to ‘proceed cautiously’ on rate...

Lorie Logan, president of Dallas Fed, expressed worry about uncertainty surrounding the exact level of neutral rate of interest and hinted at the risk that the Federal Reserve's policy rate might already near the point which further rate may starts to fuel inflation again

Hold on, Bank of England: The Fed is not so different from you on...

The Bank of England on Thursday released its latest Monetary Policy Report, announcing its decision to lower its policy rate by 25 bps to 4%. The report contains a lot of excellent analysis, including on the recent rise in food prices, the effect of trade war as well as a review of its quantitative tightening policy. But one thing, a comparatively much less important thing, in the review just stuck in my mind...

Akerlof on Keynesian-neoclassical synthesis’s departure from Keynes

George Akerlof explains how the Keynesian- neoclassical synthesis dominated the field, and what problems this dominance resulted.

Early signs of inflation expectation de-anchoring back in 2021

Ricardo Reis, economics professor at the London School of Economics, explained that there were telling signs that the increase in cost of living started ealry-2021 was not a "transitory" phenomenon.

The sovereign-bank “doom loop”

Since the Euro crisis, investors and policymakers are well aware of the so-called "doom loop" between the banking system and the sovereign. That is, a crisis originating in the banking system (sovereign) will weaken the sovereign (banking system), which in turn will worsen the banking (sovereign) crisis itself. In a recent ECB discussion Paper "Managing the sovereign-bank nexus", the 7 economists - Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Caio Ferreira, Nigel Jenkinson, Luc Laeven, Alberto Martin, Camelia Minoiu, and Alexander Popov - coauthored the paper suggested that the banks and sovereigns are linked by three interacting channels:

Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices

A new working paper from the IMF which tries to assess the impact of media sentiment on equity markets.

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