Nonbank Lending
In their recent working paper "Nonbank Lending", economists Sergey Chernenko, Isil Erel, and Robert Prilmeier provided an insightful overview of the sources and terms of private debt financing during the post-crisis period.
What comes after housing market bubble?
An investigation into the probability of a crash in house prices following a housing bubble
Shadow Fed Chair — and Powell’s nuclear option to counter it
President Trump's plan to install a "Shadow Chair" months before Jerome Powell's term ends will definitely reshape US monetary policy — but it could face a surprising challenge from Powell himself.
How to benefit from others’ QE — Hong Kong Linked Exchange Rate’s lesson
What if I tell you, behind the boring news headline, there is actually a wonkish story about how the Hong Kong central bank took advantage of the monetary easing by the Fed in the last 12 year and created a new set of policy options that it can now use to actively mange the inflows created by the new round Fed easing under the Great Lockdown.
Economic benefit of asset market bubble
What the impact of asset price bubbles on US economic growth is.
Blanchard’s “Policy Model” v “Theory Model”
Back in November last year, Professor Olivier Blanchard discussed with me about his view that there should be four types of macroeconomics, and "theory...
A skeptical review of the QEs – why they might not be powerful as...
In their working paper "A Skeptical View of the Impact of the Fed's Balance Sheet," economists David Greenlaw, James D. Hamilton, Ethan Harris, and Kenneth D. West challenge some earlier studies that concluded QEs have a significant economic impact. Their major argument is that those research used simple event studies to quantify the impact of QE.
BIS’s latest hunt for Zombie (firms)
In the latest BIS Quarterly Review, researchers Ryan Banerjee and Boris Hofmann consolidated some of the earlier research to illustrate the problem of zombie firms. They argued that the rise of zombies predated the 2008 financial crisis, and has since been dragging down the productivity of the real economy.
Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices
A new working paper from the IMF which tries to assess the impact of media sentiment on equity markets.
Hong Kong Linked Exchange Rate & HKD-USD interest rate differential
HKD tends to be on the strong side (closer to HKD 7.75 per USD) when the interest rate differential is positive (HIBOR > LIBOR).















