IMF Growth Projections and Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts
In a recent IMF working paper "Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections", economist Klaus-Peter Hellwig examined IMF's World Economic Forecasts (WEO) and check if the forecast model suffer from the problem of overfitting.
Nonbank Lending
In their recent working paper "Nonbank Lending", economists Sergey Chernenko, Isil Erel, and Robert Prilmeier provided an insightful overview of the sources and terms of private debt financing during the post-crisis period.
CoCo issuance and bank fragility
A series of papers by Stefan Avdjiev, Bilyana Bogdanova, Patrick Bolton, Wei Jiang, and Anastasia Kartasheva on this topic is highly recommended.
How to use the Fed’s FIMA Repo — the case of Hong Kong
Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the de facto central bank of Hong Kong, announced on April 22 that it will utilize the Fed's FIMA Repo facility to borrow USD 10 billion of cash.
Why Negative Rate is a better policy tool to Higher Inflation Target? Bernanke Explains…
In his latest Brookings blog post "Modifying the Fed’s policy framework: Does a higher inflation target beat negative interest rates?", Ben Bernanke compares two...
What is FTPL (Fiscal Theory of Price Level)?
The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level says that money has value because the government accepts it for taxes, and inflation is fundamentally a fiscal phenomenon
Hold on, Bank of England: The Fed is not so different from you on...
The Bank of England on Thursday released its latest Monetary Policy Report, announcing its decision to lower its policy rate by 25 bps to 4%. The report contains a lot of excellent analysis, including on the recent rise in food prices, the effect of trade war as well as a review of its quantitative tightening policy.
But one thing, a comparatively much less important thing, in the review just stuck in my mind...
How to make US inflation chart by pulling data from BLS API with Python
An important question is how do we get the series IDs for the data you need. The short answer is through BLS's Data Finder
Trump appointees will get Fed board majority when Powell is gone – and it...
Trump-appointed Fed governors will hold a board majority by the time Powell steps down as a governor. And that could matter a lot.
What is the Saturated Level of Reserves?
The Saturated Level of Reserves or efficient level of reserves, is the point which the opportunity cost for banks to hold reserves disappears, and became indifferent towards holding more reserves. The reserve demand curve beyond this point becomes close to horizontal.
