EconReporter

In a recent IMF working paper "Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections", economist Klaus-Peter Hellwig examined IMF's World Economic Forecasts (WEO) and check if the forecast model suffer from the problem of overfitting.

Countries with swap line arrangement with Federal Reserve, be it the standing ones or temporary, saw smaller increases in spread during the initial pandemic stress period.

The Bank of England on Thursday released its latest Monetary Policy Report, announcing its decision to lower its policy rate by 25 bps to 4%. The report contains a lot of excellent analysis, including on the recent rise in food prices, the effect of trade war as well as a review of its quantitative tightening policy. But one thing, a comparatively much less important thing, in the review just stuck in my mind...

In recent months, the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index has risen to a level much higher than periods around the 911 Terrorist Attack or the 2008 Financial Crisis, hence the conclusion that the economic policy is unprecedently uncertain now. But here is why you might not have to worry.

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points this week. This has been the baseline market assumption since Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, in which he proclaimed, “the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance." The question is, how many dissenting votes will Powell face in this meeting?

Inflation projections by Fed officials show that PCE inflation will not reach 2% by the end of 2025. Why the Fed expects to cut rate next year then?

Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the de facto central bank of Hong Kong, announced on April 22 that it will utilize the Fed's FIMA Repo facility to borrow USD 10 billion of cash.

“The money helicopter has arrived,” Claire Jones writes in her FT Alphaville post, citing Hong Kong Finance Secretary’s announcement of a handout of HKD...

Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) is a form of open market operations under which the Federal Reserve injects reserves into the banking system through "permanent" asset purchases with an aim to ensure the level of reserves remain "ample".

An explainer on how Hong Kong Linked Exchange Rate System works, what Aggregate Balance is, and how interest rate arbitrage help maintains Linked Exchange Rate System.