Is there a Zero Lower Bound?
In a recent research, four European Central Bank economists found that negative interest rate policy in the eurozone can encourage banks to increase lending and encourage cooperations to increase investments.
That is, contrary to what macroeconomics models usually predict, interest rate policy can still has stimulative effect even the zero lower bound is reached.
Early signs of inflation expectation de-anchoring back in 2021
Ricardo Reis, economics professor at the London School of Economics, explained that there were telling signs that the increase in cost of living started ealry-2021 was not a "transitory" phenomenon.
Bank Equity and Banking Crises
In a recent study "Bank Equity and Banking Crises" by Matthew Baron (of Cornell University), Emil Verner (MIT Sloan), and Wei Xiong (Princeton University), the three economists developed a comprehensive database of bank equity prices and banking crises with a full-sample of 46 countries from 1870-2016. They try to understand the dynamic between bank equity decline and banking crises.
What is New Keynesian DSGE Models?
DSGE is a methodology for a wide range of macroeconomics models. One of the most common formulations is the so-called New Keynesian model. New Keynesian economics can be interpreted as an effort to combine the methodological tools developed by real business cycle theory with some of the central tenets of Keynesian economics tracing back to Keynes’ own General Theory.
Bernanke on Trump’s Fiscal Policy
Ben Bernanke has a new blog post on Brookings. The focus of the post is to explain "the large difference between the reactions of the Fed and the markets to the change in fiscal prospects since the election"
Why Negative Rate is a better policy tool to Higher Inflation Target? Bernanke Explains…
In his latest Brookings blog post "Modifying the Fed’s policy framework: Does a higher inflation target beat negative interest rates?", Ben Bernanke compares two...
IMF Growth Projections and Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts
In a recent IMF working paper "Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections", economist Klaus-Peter Hellwig examined IMF's World Economic Forecasts (WEO) and check if the forecast model suffer from the problem of overfitting.
Why Fed projects to cut rates next year even it expects failure to reach...
Inflation projections by Fed officials show that PCE inflation will not reach 2% by the end of 2025. Why the Fed expects to cut rate next year then?
Measuring Federal Reserve officials’ secret disagreement behind locked doors of FOMC meetings
Dissent votes in Federal Reserve policy meetings are rare, accounting for only 6.37% of the votes between 1976 and 2017. However, opting not to vote against the FOMC consensus doesn't necessarily mean committee members don't "disagree" with it.
How often companies in Eurozone change their prices?
An ECB survey found that the retailers review and change their prices most often, while consumer and business service firms adjust their pricing the least often. Firms in the manufacturing sector, meanwhile, have a price adjustment frequency somewhere in between the above sectors













