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Fri | Nov 21-2025 | 11:37 am EST

Federal Reserve has never been this ‘confused’ about neutral rate

Federal Reserve decided to cut rate by an supersized 0.5 percentage point. The decision finally ended the weeks-long market debate of whether the central bank would cut 25 or 50 basis points. One important thing, though, didn't reach the headline: The Fed has never been this "confused" about where the natural rate should be.

Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices

A new working paper from the IMF which tries to assess the impact of media sentiment on equity markets.

Why Negative Rate is a better policy tool to Higher Inflation Target? Bernanke Explains…

In his latest Brookings blog post "Modifying the Fed’s policy framework: Does a higher inflation target beat negative interest rates?", Ben Bernanke compares two...

CoCo issuance and bank fragility

A series of papers by Stefan Avdjiev, Bilyana Bogdanova, Patrick Bolton, Wei Jiang, and Anastasia Kartasheva on this topic is highly recommended.

Fed’s swap lines help easing Covid-era global dollar shortage

Countries with swap line arrangement with Federal Reserve, be it the standing ones or temporary, saw smaller increases in spread during the initial pandemic stress period.

Early signs of inflation expectation de-anchoring back in 2021

Ricardo Reis, economics professor at the London School of Economics, explained that there were telling signs that the increase in cost of living started ealry-2021 was not a "transitory" phenomenon.

Why Does Credit Growth Crowd Out Real Economic Growth?

The faster the credit growth, the worse it is for real growth (output per worker). This is what Stephen G. Cecchetti and Enisse Kharroubi want to explain in their NBER working paper "Why Does Credit Growth Crowd Out Real Economic Growth?"

What Macroeconomists agree with each others, according to Blanchard

Olivier Blanchard a list of things that macroeconomists normally agreed on and need no further discussions.

What is New Keynesian DSGE Models?

DSGE is a methodology for a wide range of macroeconomics models. One of the most common formulations is the so-called New Keynesian model. New Keynesian economics can be interpreted as an effort to combine the methodological tools developed by real business cycle theory with some of the central tenets of Keynesian economics tracing back to Keynes’ own General Theory.

FedSpeak Might Not Have Much Effects on Public’s Inflation Expectation

In a recent NBER working paper "Monetary Policy Communications and their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations", economists Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber tried to find out how the household's expectation for inflation change with regard to the information they received.

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