Hong Kong Linked Exchange Rate & HKD-USD interest rate differential
HKD tends to be on the strong side (closer to HKD 7.75 per USD) when the interest rate differential is positive (HIBOR > LIBOR).
Standing Repo Facility Watch – Is the Fed’s ceiling tool working?
The Federal Reserve announced after the December meeting that it removed the aggregate limit on the Standing Repo Facility (SRF).
Repo rates spiked toward the end of the week, with SOFR and the Tri-party General Collateral rate (TGCR) reaching 4.12% and 4.08% on Friday, respectively, breaching the Federal Reserve's overnight interest rate target range.
Canada GDP: an Up-to-date checkup on the Canadian economy
While GDP rebounded by 0.65% in Q3 (2.6% annualized), the expansion was driven almost entirely by a 2.2% drop in imports.
What is New Keynesian DSGE Models?
DSGE is a methodology for a wide range of macroeconomics models. One of the most common formulations is the so-called New Keynesian model. New Keynesian economics can be interpreted as an effort to combine the methodological tools developed by real business cycle theory with some of the central tenets of Keynesian economics tracing back to Keynes’ own General Theory.
September FOMC Meeting: The Potential Dissenters
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points this week. This has been the baseline market assumption since Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, in which he proclaimed, “the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance."
The question is, how many dissenting votes will Powell face in this meeting?
Should Federal Reserve use scenario analysis to handle trade war uncertainty?
The Fed is currently in a "wait and see" mode in deciding what is the reaction to Trump's trade policy. But is it possible for the Fed to be a bit more proactive than merely saying "we will be able to update you further when we know more details"?
Enters scenario analysis.
Phillips Curve is Not a Straight Line…
A story about three economists agree with the prevailing consensus that the Phillips Curve of the US is flattened in the last few decades on the one hand; and dispute the idea that the Phillips Curve is dead on the other.
The repo spike is not liquidity crisis; it is a crisis for Fed’s floor...
The floor system needs a cap on top of it. The sooner the Fed realizes it, the better they will be prepared for the coming financial turmoil.
Trump appointees will get Fed board majority when Powell is gone – and it...
Trump-appointed Fed governors will hold a board majority by the time Powell steps down as a governor. And that could matter a lot.
The problem with monetarist’s view of inflation
Long-run stability of the velocity, or the filpside of it, money demand, however, is not a empirically founded assumption.














