Where are the endpoints of QT? Ample Reserve System vs Demand-driven Floor System
Quantitative tightening (QT)—a process central banks use to reverse years of liquidity creation from quantitative easing (QE)—is concluding in many advanced economies. The central banks are growing confident that reserve levels in their financial systems are nearing their endpoints.
Where are the endpoints of QT and what come next?
Aging, Output Per Capita and Secular Stagnation
Gauti B. Eggertsson, Manuel Lancastre, and Lawrence H. Summers explain in their paper "Aging, Output Per Capita and Secular Stagnation" the role of aging in the Secular Stagnation model.
The Missing Profits of Nations and Multinationals’ Extreme Profitability in Tax Havens
The economics of tax evasion is a growing field in academic economics. There are much new exciting research trying to understand the mechanism behind global tax evasion. "The Missing Profits of Nations” by Thomas R. Tørsløv, Ludvig S. Wier and Gabriel Zucman is one of the most noteworthy research on the dynamic behind global tax evasions.
Helicopter Money is here in Hong Kong? Well…
“The money helicopter has arrived,” Claire Jones writes in her FT Alphaville post, citing Hong Kong Finance Secretary’s announcement of a handout of HKD...
Should Federal Reserve use scenario analysis to handle trade war uncertainty?
The Fed is currently in a "wait and see" mode in deciding what is the reaction to Trump's trade policy. But is it possible for the Fed to be a bit more proactive than merely saying "we will be able to update you further when we know more details"?
Enters scenario analysis.
What is Hysteresis?
Hysteresis is referred to the hypothesis that recessions may have permanent effects on the level of output relative to trend.
Central Bank’s Balance Sheet and the Rise of Reserves
The above figure shows the balance sheet of four major central banks from 2005 to 2015. Above the horizontal axis is the asset side...
CoCo issuance and bank fragility
A series of papers by Stefan Avdjiev, Bilyana Bogdanova, Patrick Bolton, Wei Jiang, and Anastasia Kartasheva on this topic is highly recommended.
Hysteresis – An Underrated Macroeconomics Question
Hysteresis is referred to the hypothesis that recessions may have permanent effects on the level of output relative to trend.
Why Does Credit Growth Crowd Out Real Economic Growth?
The faster the credit growth, the worse it is for real growth (output per worker). This is what Stephen G. Cecchetti and Enisse Kharroubi want to explain in their NBER working paper "Why Does Credit Growth Crowd Out Real Economic Growth?"
