Blanchard’s “Policy Model” v “Theory Model”
Back in November last year, Professor Olivier Blanchard discussed with me about his view that there should be four types of macroeconomics, and "theory...
What is Hysteresis?
Hysteresis is referred to the hypothesis that recessions may have permanent effects on the level of output relative to trend.
Should Federal Reserve use scenario analysis to handle trade war uncertainty?
The Fed is currently in a "wait and see" mode in deciding what is the reaction to Trump's trade policy. But is it possible for the Fed to be a bit more proactive than merely saying "we will be able to update you further when we know more details"?
Enters scenario analysis.
No, PPI is not a measure of wholesale inflation
A standard perception of PPI is that it is a measure of "wholesale inflation", but the BLS told EconReporter that this interpretation of PPI is not at all correct.
Is there a Zero Lower Bound?
In a recent research, four European Central Bank economists found that negative interest rate policy in the eurozone can encourage banks to increase lending and encourage cooperations to increase investments.
That is, contrary to what macroeconomics models usually predict, interest rate policy can still has stimulative effect even the zero lower bound is reached.
Phillips Curve is Not a Straight Line…
A story about three economists agree with the prevailing consensus that the Phillips Curve of the US is flattened in the last few decades on the one hand; and dispute the idea that the Phillips Curve is dead on the other.
Is tipflation even part of inflation?
Or, to frame the question in a more technical way: is tipflation even counted as part of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation?
Nonbank Lending
In their recent working paper "Nonbank Lending", economists Sergey Chernenko, Isil Erel, and Robert Prilmeier provided an insightful overview of the sources and terms of private debt financing during the post-crisis period.
100% Reserve System is coming? – The Swiss Sovereign Money Referendum
The Swiss sovereign-money referendum, also known as the Sovereign-Money Initiative, which aims to creates a safe and crisis-free, yet experimental, banking system in Switzerland will be held on 10th June.
The Most Important Question Jay Powell Need to Answer – Where is the Saturated...
The most important question for the 30th Jan Fed meeting balance sheet policy, because it is also most underrated by the market.















