Tuesday, August 11, 2020
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Exploration in Economics by a non-expert

Financial Markets Face Fresh Wave of Political Uncertainty… generated by one Hong Kong Newspaper?

In recent months, the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index has risen to a level much higher than periods around the 911 Terrorist Attack or the 2008 Financial Crisis, hence the conclusion that the economic policy is unprecedently uncertain now.But here is why you might not have to worry.

Currency Zones through the last 50 years

The figure above is from a recent BIS working paper "A key currency view of global imbalances". It shows the currency geography as of four dates from the last days of Bretton Woods until now: 1968, 1985, 2001 and 2017.

Debt Growth Rate, not Level, Predicts Slowdown

Last week, Bank of England's Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent gave an insightful speech about debt dynamics.An important point Broadbent has illustrated is that a high absolute level of debt is...

Hong Kong Linked Exchange Rate & HKD-USD interest rate differential

HKD tends to be on the strong side (closer to HKD 7.75 per USD) when the interest rate differential is positive (HIBOR > LIBOR).

The Rise of Non-Bank US Dollar Credit Continues

The latest BIS global liquidity indicators showed that the share of Non-bank USD denominated credit continued its rising trend.

Macroprudential Policy – how does it differ from rate hikes?

Macroprudential policies, it is argued, are more targeted and can complement central bank’s use of interest rate policy.

BIS’s latest hunt for Zombie (firms)

In the latest BIS Quarterly Review, researchers Ryan Banerjee and Boris Hofmann consolidated some of the earlier research to illustrate the problem of zombie firms. They argued that the rise of zombies predated the 2008 financial crisis, and has since been dragging down the productivity of the real economy.

Crashes and Rebounds in Housing Markets

The focus of the research is to find out if there is any "predictable" pattern following housing "bubbles".

CoCo issuance and bank fragility

A series of papers by Stefan Avdjiev, Bilyana Bogdanova, Patrick Bolton, Wei Jiang, and Anastasia Kartasheva on this topic is highly recommended.

Why Yellen should stay as Fed Governor? | Q&A with Conti-Brown

When President Trump decided to nominate Jay Powell instead of Janet Yellen to be the next Federal Reserve Chair, my mind was full of interesting questions on how this decision impacts the institution of the Fed. In my opinion, one of the best experts to answer my question would be Peter Conti-Brown, assistant professor at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and author of one of the best book about the institution of Fed --- "The Power and Independence of the Federal Reserve".