Canada Labor Market Watch
Canada's unemployment rate dropped substantially and unexpectedly to 6.5% in November, from 6.9% in the prior month, showing signs of a much-needed resiliency in the North American economy.
Canada GDP Q3 2025
While GDP rebounded by 0.65% in Q3 (2.6% annualized), the expansion was driven almost entirely by a 2.2% drop in imports.
Canada GDP rebound masks lackluster domestic demand
The Canadian economy saw a significant rebound in the third quarter. A 0.65% expansion in the quarter was more than enough to recover the downwardly revised 0.47% contraction in the previous second quarter.
The Fed’s ‘leaky ceiling’ problem
Why is the Fed's SRF failing? Top Fed officials called the issue a "leaky ceiling" that doomed Quantitative Tightening (QT). Learn how low bank participation and the leaky floor analogy suggest new policy changes.
If the Fed ends QT too soon, it risks discrediting its ceiling tools
Analysts are expecting the Federal Reserve to announce the end of quantitative tightening (QT) at the upcoming meeting this week. The speculation is fueled by Chairman Jerome Powell's speech earlier this month in which he mentioned the supply of reserves may reach an "ample" level "in coming months."
Will QT finish before Powell’s chairman term ends?
Quantitative tightening (QT) may reach its end point "in the coming months," said Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in a speech last week.
What does it mean? Will QT finish before Powell's chairman term ends?
Bank of Canada drops interest rate to 2.5% — also a risk management cut
After holding the policy rate unchanged in the past three meetings, Bank of Canada on Wednesday resumed its rate cut cycle, lowering its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%.
September FOMC Meeting: The Potential Dissenters
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points this week. This has been the baseline market assumption since Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, in which he proclaimed, “the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance."
The question is, how many dissenting votes will Powell face in this meeting?
US PPI drops to 2.6% in August— a tale of two service prices
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand (PPI-FD) declined 0.1% MoM in Aug, bring the annual increase down to 2.6% from 3.1% in the previous month.
Canada unemployment rate surges to 7.1% in Aug
The unemployment rate in Canada has risen to 7.1% in August, the highest level since May 2016 outside of the pandemic era, StatCan reported Friday.
Canada GDP shrinks 0.4% in Q2, is it all gloomy?
Canada's GDP contracted by 0.4% (or 1.6% annualized) over the second quarter, amid a 7.5% (26.7% annualized) drop in exports as the impact of US-imposed tariffs started to bite.
Canada retail sales up 1.5% MoM in June, likely followed by 0.8% drop in...
Canada retail sales increased 1.46% month-over-month in June while core retail sales, which exclude gasoline and auto sales, was up 1.95%.
Hold on, Bank of England: The Fed is not so different from you on...
The Bank of England on Thursday released its latest Monetary Policy Report, announcing its decision to lower its policy rate by 25 bps to 4%. The report contains a lot of excellent analysis, including on the recent rise in food prices, the effect of trade war as well as a review of its quantitative tightening policy.
But one thing, a comparatively much less important thing, in the review just stuck in my mind...
Hong Kong soaks up HKD 30 billion from interbank market to defend currency peg
Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened twice in the foreign exchange market on Thursday (July 3) to soak up a total of HKD 29.6 billion from the city's interbank liquidity market, as HKD exchange rate fell toward the weak end of its official trading band.
‘Unusually low’ Hong Kong interest rate is a policy choice*
A careful study of Hong Kong's currency peg that explain why the current low-interest rate environment can be interpreted as a result of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's policy choice.
Why is the Hong Kong-US interest rate spread so persistent? — Currency peg in...
A spread of over 3.5 percentage points between US and Hong Kong Interest rate persisted for close to two months and so far arbitrage has failed to close the gap, leading to discussion of whether Hong Kong's Linked Exchange System is failing. This article, however, will explore some technical factors behind this interesting interest rate gap.
First sighting of Trump II tariff revenue surge
The US government on April 22 received USD 11.7 billion from customer duties in a single day, the first time we can observe a substantial increase in import duties revenue resulted from the new of tariff from the second Trump administration.
Should Federal Reserve use scenario analysis to handle trade war uncertainty?
The Fed is currently in a "wait and see" mode in deciding what is the reaction to Trump's trade policy. But is it possible for the Fed to be a bit more proactive than merely saying "we will be able to update you further when we know more details"?
Enters scenario analysis.
Dallas Fed’s Logan cites neutral rate uncertainty as reason to ‘proceed cautiously’ on rate...
Lorie Logan, president of Dallas Fed, expressed worry about uncertainty surrounding the exact level of neutral rate of interest and hinted at the risk that the Federal Reserve's policy rate might already near the point which further rate may starts to fuel inflation again
Some Bank of Canada officials worried half point cut might signal economic trouble
Some Bank of Canada officials expressed worries during the last policy meeting that an "unusual" 50-basis-point might be "interpreted as a sign of economic trouble" and led to expectations of further outsized cuts, the meeting deliberations summary shows.
US consumers continues to drive strong GDP growth
US GDP increased by more than 2.8% at an annualized rate in Q3, supported by continued acceleration the growth of personal consumption expenditures.
Eurozone economy shows resilience with 0.4% GDP increase in Q3
Eurozone GDP quarterly growth rate sped up to 0.4% in Q3, an upside surprise compared to an expectation of 0.2% increase, countering widespread worries that the currency bloc is sliding into economic stagnation.
Bank of Canada not sure about exact level of neutral rate, Macklem says
Bank of Canada isn't entirely sure what the country's natural rate of interest is and the central bank will have to discover it over time, said Governor Tiff Macklem.
Fed projects plan for front-loaded monetary easing, kicks off with 50 bps cut
The Federal Reserve lowered its fed fund rate target by 50 basis points to the range of 4.75 - 5%, with governor Michelle Bowman dissented the decision in favor of a smaller a quarter percentage point cut.
US Retail sales up just 0.1%, still beats expectations
Retail sales in the US increased just 0.05% on a monthly basis in August, down from the outsized 1.15% growth in July but still beats market expectation of -0.2%
Why Canada’s unemployment rate is rising so rapidly?
Canada's labor market has cooled down rapidly this year. Unemployment rate rose to 6.6% in August. The major issue is that the not enough job are created to digest the explosive population growth over the last few years and this integration problem is growing larger every month.
ECB cuts rate to 3.5% as it scales down growth forecast
The European Central Bank reduced the deposit facility rate, its policy interest rate anchor, by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.5%, as the central bank slightly lowered its economic growth forecast.
Canadian’s average carried over credit card balances highest in 14 years, Equifax reports
The average carried over credit card balances for Canadian consumers topped CAD 4,300 in Q2, reaching the highest level since 2007, Equifax Canada said in its latest Market Pulse Consumer Credit Trends and Insights Report.
Canada inflation slows further to 2.5% in July
Inflation in Canada decreased to 2.53% at an annual basis in July according to Statistics Canada's latest report
Fed’s Daly, Kashkari support rate cut talks in September meeting
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari are both open to discussions about cutting Fed Fund Rate target at the up coming Federal Reserve meeting
US CPI down to 2.9% in July as disinflation continues
US headline CPI down to 2.9% in July, lowest since March 2021
UK sees both unemployment rate, wage growth drop in June
Unemployment rate in the UK decreased to 4.2% at the three months to June, against a market expectation of rising from the May reading of 4.4% to 4.5%, the Office for National Statistics reported Tuesday.
Fed’s Bowman still sees ‘upside risks’ to US inflation
Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman is worried about reacceleration in cost of living, saying that she 'still see some upside risks to inflation'
Bank of Canada names ex-central bankers, University of Calgary professor as external experts for...
Ex-Bank of Spain Governor Pablo Hernández de Cos, ex-BoE official Kristin Forbes and Trevor Tombe, professor at the University of Calgary, will for an external expert team to conduct independent assessment on Bank of Canada's review on Covid-era exceptional actions
US initial jobless claims falls to 233,000, lower than expected
The number of people filed their initial claim for unemployment insurance benefits in the US fell to 233,000 in the week ending August 3.
Bank of Canada July meeting minutes reveal growing concerns on slowing labor market, consumption
Bank of Canada officials were increasingly concerned about potential risk of consumption slowdown amid growing slack in the labor market and excess supply in the economy when they cut interest rate during July 24 meeting, according to the central bank's summary of deliberations.
US PCE inflation drops to 2.5% as disinflationary trend continues
Inflation in the US cooled off further to 2.5% over the year to the end of June, according to the latest reading of US Bureau of Economic Analysis's PCE price index.
US GDP grows at 2.8% in Q2 as consumer spending remains strong
US GDP grew at a 2.8% annualized rate in Q2, supported by acceleration in consumer spending, increase in nonresidential fixed investment as well as an upturn in private inventory investment
UK retail sales drops 1.2% in June due to poor weather, election uncertainty
Monthly growth rate of UK retail sales volume fell 1.2% in June, after a 2.9% increase in the previous month.
Canada inflation drops back to 2.7% in June
Annual inflation rate in Canada eased back to less than 2.7% in June after a upshot in the previous month, according to Statistics Canada's CPI report.
US nonfarm payroll beats expectations in June amid signs of cooling off
US nonfarm payroll increased by 206,000 in June, beating market expectation of 190,000, amid signs that job growth in cooling off as the the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down the May and April by a combined 111,000 in its report released Friday.
US Job openings increases to 8.1 million in May, JOLT report shows
Job openings increased to 8.14 million in May while the number of hirings in the month was 5.78 million
US PCE price index shows zero monthly inflation in May
US PCE price index showed 0% monthly inflation in May, bolstering market narrative that consumption sentiment has weakened in Q2 and helped easing inflationary pressure in the US economy.
US large banks pass Fed’s stress test with credit card, commercial loans projected to...
The Federal Reserve revealed US large banks passed the 2024 banking system stress test.
Canada inflation rebounds to 2.9% in May
CPI inflation in Canada rebounded to 2.9% YoY and 0.31% MoM in May 2024
BoE holds rate at 5.25% with ‘some’ officials signal eagerness to cut
Bank of England held its policy interest rate at 5.25% with a 7-2 vote amongst officials at its Monetary Policy Committee.
US CPI shows zero inflation in May
US CPI grew 0% in May as the yearly growth rate dropped to 3.27%; core inflation, which stripped out food and energy prices, rose 0.2% and the yearly rate decreased to 3.42%
US gains 272,000 jobs in May, blows past expectations
US gained 272,000 nonfarm employment in May blew past market expectations of an 185,000 increase. Meanwhile, unemployment rate rose to 4%, which is the highest level since November 2021.
Bank of Canada cuts rate by 0.25 ppts to 4.75%
The Bank of Canada lowered its target for overnight rate by 0.25 ppts to 4.75%, making it one of the advanced economy central banks to cut rates before Federal Reserve does.
US PCE inflation holds at 2.7% in April as market expected
US PCE inflation held at 2.7% YoY in April 2024 while core inflation maintained its pace at 2.8% for the third months,
