US goods trade deficit hits all-time high in 2025—What does it mean for Q4...
US trade deficit continues to widen in December after hitting recent year low in October. The total import was USD 70.3 billion higher than export in the last month of 2025, according to the US Census Bureau.
The Most Important Question Jay Powell Need to Answer – Where is the Saturated...
The most important question for the 30th Jan Fed meeting balance sheet policy, because it is also most underrated by the market.
This is why the Fed can afford to look through the Iran War energy...
The vacancy-to-unemployed ratio currently stands at 0.91 — meaning there are fewer open jobs than unemployed workers. At the peak of post-COVID labor market tightness, that ratio exceeded 2. This structural difference is the strongest argument the Fed has for looking through the Iran War energy shock.
Why Fed projects to cut rates next year even it expects failure to reach...
Inflation projections by Fed officials show that PCE inflation will not reach 2% by the end of 2025. Why the Fed expects to cut rate next year then?
Bank of Canada turns more ‘two-handed’ as ‘Stag’ vs ‘flation’ risks roughly balanced following...
The Bank of Canada on Wednesday held its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, which is exactly what the market expected. The focus is now on the central bank's assessment of the Iran War's impact on the economy.
Navarro gives Warsh the excuse to hike
Peter Navarro's Fox News op-ed this weekend is, on the surface, a warning about Powell's shadow power over Warsh's Fed. Read differently, it is a permission slip.
Debt Growth Rate, not Level, Predicts Slowdown, says BoE’s Broadbent
An important point Broadbent has illustrated is that a high absolute level of debt is not the most worrying sign of economic slowdown. It is the growth rate of debt that we should heed.
