BoE thinks this leading indicator can tell us how high UK goods inflation will...
One of the leading indicators Bank of England (BoE) uses to predict the future direction of goods inflation is the manufacturing producer price index (PPI) growth rate. The close relation, however, has broken down in the past year.
Navarro gives Warsh the excuse to hike
Peter Navarro's Fox News op-ed this weekend is, on the surface, a warning about Powell's shadow power over Warsh's Fed. Read differently, it is a permission slip.
Federal Reserve has never been this ‘confused’ about neutral rate
Federal Reserve decided to cut rate by an supersized 0.5 percentage point. The decision finally ended the weeks-long market debate of whether the central bank would cut 25 or 50 basis points. One important thing, though, didn't reach the headline: The Fed has never been this "confused" about where the natural rate should be.
Debt Growth Rate, not Level, Predicts Slowdown, says BoE’s Broadbent
An important point Broadbent has illustrated is that a high absolute level of debt is not the most worrying sign of economic slowdown. It is the growth rate of debt that we should heed.
US goods trade deficit hits all-time high in 2025—What does it mean for Q4...
US trade deficit continues to widen in December after hitting recent year low in October. The total import was USD 70.3 billion higher than export in the last month of 2025, according to the US Census Bureau.
This is why the Fed can afford to look through the Iran War energy...
The vacancy-to-unemployed ratio currently stands at 0.91 — meaning there are fewer open jobs than unemployed workers. At the peak of post-COVID labor market tightness, that ratio exceeded 2. This structural difference is the strongest argument the Fed has for looking through the Iran War energy shock.
No World Cup effect in the US jobs market after all
The 2026 World Cup has been hailed as a successful event in the US, but according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' establishment survey, the once-every-four-years international football tournament failed to bring jobs... But we did see it in Canada
The Most Important Question Jay Powell Need to Answer – Where is the Saturated...
The most important question for the 30th Jan Fed meeting balance sheet policy, because it is also most underrated by the market.