Economics

In a recent study "Bank Equity and Banking Crises" by Matthew Baron (of Cornell University), Emil Verner (MIT Sloan), and Wei Xiong (Princeton University), the three economists developed a comprehensive database of bank equity prices and banking crises with a full-sample of 46 countries from 1870-2016. They try to understand the dynamic between bank equity decline and banking crises.

Standing Repo Facility (SRF) is a relatively young Federal Reserve facility. Formally established as a permanent tool in July 2021, SRF allows banks to obtain overnight liquidity with high-quality collaterals like Treasuries through a repurchase agreement. Most people may not be familiar with this "obscure" Fed tool, but it is possible that SRF will soon become one of the Fed's most important tools.

An important question is how do we get the series IDs for the data you need. The short answer is through BLS's Data Finder

In a recent IMF working paper "Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections", economist Klaus-Peter Hellwig examined IMF's World Economic Forecasts (WEO) and check if the forecast model suffer from the problem of overfitting.

The Fed is currently in a "wait and see" mode in deciding what is the reaction to Trump's trade policy. But is it possible for the Fed to be a bit more proactive than merely saying "we will be able to update you further when we know more details"? Enters scenario analysis.

In celebration of Richard Thaler's prize lecture for his 2017 Nobel prize, we interviewed two of his best co-authors -- Hersh Shefrin and Shlomo Benartzi -- to discuss the future of behavioral economics.

Inflation projections by Fed officials show that PCE inflation will not reach 2% by the end of 2025. Why the Fed expects to cut rate next year then?

The honorable guest for this installment is Joseph E. Gagnon, senior fellow at Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE). We discussed one of his latest research paper "Unconventional Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies" and the new book he coauthored with C. Fred Bergsten, "Currency Conflict and Trade Policy: A New Strategy for the United States". Gagnon also shared his view on the very popular "Global Financial Cycle" ideas.

How Alan Taylor, one of the authors of "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015" explains the liquidity premium problem when we compare the rate of return on Housing and Equity

Quantitative tightening (QT)—a process central banks use to reverse years of liquidity creation from quantitative easing (QE)—is concluding in many advanced economies. The central banks are growing confident that reserve levels in their financial systems are nearing their endpoints. Where are the endpoints of QT and what come next?