Economics

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points this week. This has been the baseline market assumption since Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, in which he proclaimed, “the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance." The question is, how many dissenting votes will Powell face in this meeting?

In a recent IMF working paper "Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections", economist Klaus-Peter Hellwig examined IMF's World Economic Forecasts (WEO) and check if the forecast model suffer from the problem of overfitting.

Or, to frame the question in a more technical way: is tipflation even counted as part of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation?

"The [Standing Repo Facility (SRF)] rate is set at the top of the FOMC’s target range for the federal funds rate. This combination of an ample supply of reserves and an SRF rate at the top of the target range reduces the day-to-day reliance on the facility except during periods of significant upward pressure on rates resulting from strong liquidity demand or market stress," said John Williams

Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) is a form of open market operations under which the Federal Reserve injects reserves into the banking system through "permanent" asset purchases with an aim to ensure the level of reserves remain "ample".

Welcome to the latest installment of our interview series “Where is the General Theory of the 21st Century?” “Where is the General Theory of the...

In recent months, the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index has risen to a level much higher than periods around the 911 Terrorist Attack or the 2008 Financial Crisis, hence the conclusion that the economic policy is unprecedently uncertain now. But here is why you might not have to worry.

The economics of tax evasion is a growing field in academic economics. There are much new exciting research trying to understand the mechanism behind global tax evasion. "The Missing Profits of Nations” by Thomas R. Tørsløv, Ludvig S. Wier and Gabriel Zucman is one of the most noteworthy research on the dynamic behind global tax evasions.

Quantitative tightening (QT)—a process central banks use to reverse years of liquidity creation from quantitative easing (QE)—is concluding in many advanced economies. The central banks are growing confident that reserve levels in their financial systems are nearing their endpoints. Where are the endpoints of QT and what come next?

If you think the interest rate gap between Hong Kong and US is a market phenomenon, think again. HK Monetary Authority has a much bigger role than you think