IMF Growth Projections and Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts
In a recent IMF working paper "Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections", economist Klaus-Peter Hellwig examined IMF's World Economic Forecasts (WEO) and check if the forecast model suffer from the problem of overfitting.
Major Shifts in Macroeconomics Since the Great Recession | Interview with Atif Mian
Atif Mian, co-author of House of Debt, discusses what he thinks are the "revolutionary" changes in macroeconomic academia since the Great Recession.
Bank Equity and Banking Crises
In a recent study "Bank Equity and Banking Crises" by Matthew Baron (of Cornell University), Emil Verner (MIT Sloan), and Wei Xiong (Princeton University), the three economists developed a comprehensive database of bank equity prices and banking crises with a full-sample of 46 countries from 1870-2016. They try to understand the dynamic between bank equity decline and banking crises.
Aging, Output Per Capita and Secular Stagnation
Gauti B. Eggertsson, Manuel Lancastre, and Lawrence H. Summers explain in their paper "Aging, Output Per Capita and Secular Stagnation" the role of aging in the Secular Stagnation model.
The model you should use to explain Macroeconomics to your Mum | Q&A with...
>Professor Olivier Blanchard further explained the role empirical research on DSGE models, how to teach undergraduates macro after the Great Recession, and his research on hysteresis.
How to use Interest on Reserve for Inflation Targeting? | Q&A with Ricardo Reis...
This is the eighth installment of our interview series “Where is the General Theory of the 21st Century?”
In this installment, we continue our talk...
“Concrete Economics” Review
Prof. Brad Delong's blogs, either "bradford-delong.com" or over at " Equitable Growth" , are definitely two of the most influential economics blogs in the...
What is Hysteresis?
Hysteresis is referred to the hypothesis that recessions may have permanent effects on the level of output relative to trend.
How to Reform the Federal Reserve System? | Q&A with Kocherlakota |
Welcome to the latest installment of our interview series “Where is the General Theory of the 21st Century?”
“Where is the General Theory of the...
Why is the Hong Kong-US interest rate spread so persistent? — Currency peg in...
A spread of over 3.5 percentage points between US and Hong Kong Interest rate persisted for close to two months and so far arbitrage has failed to close the gap, leading to discussion of whether Hong Kong's Linked Exchange System is failing. This article, however, will explore some technical factors behind this interesting interest rate gap.
