Measuring Federal Reserve officials’ secret disagreement behind locked doors of FOMC meetings
Dissent votes in Federal Reserve policy meetings are rare, accounting for only 6.37% of the votes between 1976 and 2017. However, opting not to vote against the FOMC consensus doesn't necessarily mean committee members don't "disagree" with it.
Central Bank’s Balance Sheet and the Rise of Reserves
The above figure shows the balance sheet of four major central banks from 2005 to 2015. Above the horizontal axis is the asset side...
A Pitfall of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
In recent months, the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index has risen to a level much higher than periods around the 911 Terrorist Attack or the 2008 Financial Crisis, hence the conclusion that the economic policy is unprecedently uncertain now.
But here is why you might not have to worry.
The Disappointments with Post-Great Recession Macroeconomics | Q&A with Kocherlakota |
Welcome to the latest installment of our interview series “Where is the General Theory of the 21st Century?”
“Where is the General Theory of the...
Economics Rules – Why Economists do it with Models | Q&A with Dani Rodrik
Rodrik explained why good economists think in terms of models, and what are major differences between models and theory.
He also told us why macroeconomists' quest to find "the one true model" on the business cycle is probably misguided.
The problem with monetarist’s view of inflation
Long-run stability of the velocity, or the filpside of it, money demand, however, is not a empirically founded assumption.
Hong Kong Linked Exchange Rate & HKD-USD interest rate differential
HKD tends to be on the strong side (closer to HKD 7.75 per USD) when the interest rate differential is positive (HIBOR > LIBOR).
Should Federal Reserve use scenario analysis to handle trade war uncertainty?
The Fed is currently in a "wait and see" mode in deciding what is the reaction to Trump's trade policy. But is it possible for the Fed to be a bit more proactive than merely saying "we will be able to update you further when we know more details"?
Enters scenario analysis.
Federal Reserve has never been this ‘confused’ about neutral rate
Federal Reserve decided to cut rate by an supersized 0.5 percentage point. The decision finally ended the weeks-long market debate of whether the central bank would cut 25 or 50 basis points. One important thing, though, didn't reach the headline: The Fed has never been this "confused" about where the natural rate should be.
When will Hong Kong’s Interest Rates Align With the US?
If you think the interest rate gap between Hong Kong and US is a market phenomenon, think again. HK Monetary Authority has a much bigger role than you think
