Economics

A series of papers by Stefan Avdjiev, Bilyana Bogdanova, Patrick Bolton, Wei Jiang, and Anastasia Kartasheva on this topic is highly recommended.

In a recent IMF working paper "Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections", economist Klaus-Peter Hellwig examined IMF's World Economic Forecasts (WEO) and check if the forecast model suffer from the problem of overfitting.

Ben Bernanke has a new blog post on Brookings. The focus of the post is to explain "the large difference between the reactions of the Fed and the markets to the change in fiscal prospects since the election"

"The [Standing Repo Facility (SRF)] rate is set at the top of the FOMC’s target range for the federal funds rate. This combination of an ample supply of reserves and an SRF rate at the top of the target range reduces the day-to-day reliance on the facility except during periods of significant upward pressure on rates resulting from strong liquidity demand or market stress," said John Williams

The Saturated Level of Reserves or efficient level of reserves, is the point which the opportunity cost for banks to hold reserves disappears, and became indifferent towards holding more reserves. The reserve demand curve beyond this point becomes close to horizontal.

Prof. Brad Delong's blogs, either "bradford-delong.com" or over at " Equitable Growth" , are definitely two of the most influential economics blogs in the...

This is the eighth installment of our interview series “Where is the General Theory of the 21st Century?” In this installment, we continue our talk...

Larry Christiano, one of the most prominent researcher on DSGE model, explains what his research "Understanding the Great Recession" tell us about the Great Recession as well as labor participation rate's role in the developments of the Great Recession.

US banks and primary dealers have ramped up usage of the Standing Repo Facility in the last week of November, ending the month with a USD 24 billion usage of the lending facility. Repo rates spiked toward the end of the week, with SOFR and the Tri-party General Collateral rate (TGCR) reaching 4.12% and 4.08% on Friday, respectively, breaching the Federal Reserve's overnight interest rate target range.

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points this week. This has been the baseline market assumption since Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, in which he proclaimed, “the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance." The question is, how many dissenting votes will Powell face in this meeting?