Measuring Federal Reserve officials’ secret disagreement behind locked doors of FOMC meetings
Dissent votes in Federal Reserve policy meetings are rare, accounting for only 6.37% of the votes between 1976 and 2017. However, opting not to vote against the FOMC consensus doesn't necessarily mean committee members don't "disagree" with it.
A Pitfall of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
In recent months, the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index has risen to a level much higher than periods around the 911 Terrorist Attack or the 2008 Financial Crisis, hence the conclusion that the economic policy is unprecedently uncertain now.
But here is why you might not have to worry.
Is Inequality part of Macroeconomics? | Interview with Branko Milanovic |
Branko Milanovic discusses whether the study of inequality can be considered as part of macroeconomics and how should macroeconomists incorporate his idea of Kuznets Waves into their models.
Bernanke on Trump’s Fiscal Policy
Ben Bernanke has a new blog post on Brookings. The focus of the post is to explain "the large difference between the reactions of the Fed and the markets to the change in fiscal prospects since the election"
Should Federal Reserve use scenario analysis to handle trade war uncertainty?
The Fed is currently in a "wait and see" mode in deciding what is the reaction to Trump's trade policy. But is it possible for the Fed to be a bit more proactive than merely saying "we will be able to update you further when we know more details"?
Enters scenario analysis.
Why Yellen should have stayed as Fed Governor? | Interview with Conti-Brown
Peter Conti-Brown, author of one of the best book about the institution of Fed, "The Power and Independence of the Federal Reserve", explains what Jay Powell's nomination means to the Fed independence and why Janet Yellen should have stay as governor after his Chair term ended.
The effects of Unconventional Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy | Q&A with Joseph Gagnon
The honorable guest for this installment is Joseph E. Gagnon, senior fellow at Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE). We discussed one of his latest research paper "Unconventional Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies" and the new book he coauthored with C. Fred Bergsten, "Currency Conflict and Trade Policy: A New Strategy for the United States". Gagnon also shared his view on the very popular "Global Financial Cycle" ideas.
The problem with monetarist’s view of inflation
Long-run stability of the velocity, or the filpside of it, money demand, however, is not a empirically founded assumption.
Dallas Fed’s Logan cites neutral rate uncertainty as reason to ‘proceed cautiously’ on rate...
Lorie Logan, president of Dallas Fed, expressed worry about uncertainty surrounding the exact level of neutral rate of interest and hinted at the risk that the Federal Reserve's policy rate might already near the point which further rate may starts to fuel inflation again
Economic benefit of asset market bubble
What the impact of asset price bubbles on US economic growth is.















