Economics

In a recent IMF working paper "Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections", economist Klaus-Peter Hellwig examined IMF's World Economic Forecasts (WEO) and check if the forecast model suffer from the problem of overfitting.

In this installment, we continue our discussion with Prof. Charles Calomiris, Henry Kaufman Professor of Financial Institutions at Columbia Business School. The topic of this installment is the missing role of politics in economics models of banking crises. We also discussed if Calomiris thinks macroeconomics has a similar problem.

"There is a big difference between saying you want to allow for city-scale reform zones that will encourage reform of government and innovation in government, and saying that you want to do away with government entirely and let a corporate entity run a private city," says Nobel winning economist Paul Romer.

The payment on reserve process proposed by Robert Hall and Ricardo Reis is a way of remunerating reserves which would give the central bank better control over the price level.The basic intuition is that...

The discussion on Paul Romer's "The Trouble with Macroeconomics" continues in the blogosphere, and Simon Wren -Lewis's "Paul Romer on macroeconomics" is one of the Must-Reads.In his comments, Wren-Lewis said that Romer's view is...

Back in November last year, Professor Olivier Blanchard discussed with me about his view that there should be four types of macroeconomics, and "theory models" like DSGEs is just one of them. Here is...

HKD tends to be on the strong side (closer to HKD 7.75 per USD) when the interest rate differential is positive (HIBOR > LIBOR).

The honorable guest for this installment is Joseph E. Gagnon, senior fellow at Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE). We discussed one of his latest research paper "Unconventional Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies" and the new book he coauthored with C. Fred Bergsten, "Currency Conflict and Trade Policy: A New Strategy for the United States". Gagnon also shared his view on the very popular "Global Financial Cycle" ideas.

Welcome to the latest installment of our interview series “Where is the General Theory of the 21st Century?”“Where is the General Theory of the 21st Century?” is an interview series which we ask top...

The faster the credit growth, the worse it is for real growth (output per worker). This is what Stephen G. Cecchetti and Enisse Kharroubi want to explain in their NBER working paper "Why Does Credit Growth Crowd Out Real Economic Growth?"