Monday, October 19, 2020

When will Hong Kong’s Interest Rates Align With the US?

If you think the interest rate gap between Hong Kong and US is a market phenomenon, think again. HK Monetary Authority has a much bigger role than you think

Phillips Curve is Not a Straight Line…

A story about three economists agree with the prevailing consensus that the Phillips Curve of the US is flattened in the last few decades on the one hand; and dispute the idea that the Phillips Curve is dead on the other.

FedSpeak Might Not Have Much Effects on Public’s Inflation Expectation

In a recent NBER working paper "Monetary Policy Communications and their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations", economists Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber tried to find out how the household's expectation for inflation change with regard to the information they received.

Derivatives’s Credit Terms in Eurozone Tighten Further

The latest SESFOD shows that the credit terms offered to counterparties for both securities financing and OTC derivative transactions is further tightened.

Most of China’s Foreign Currency Credit are in USD

According to the data from BIS global liquidity indicators, as of September 2018, most foreign currency credits to China is still denominated with US dollar.

The Rise of Non-Bank US Dollar Credit Continues

The latest BIS global liquidity indicators showed that the share of Non-bank USD denominated credit continued its rising trend.

How many US Public Debts out there? Who own them?

According to the data shown in the Congressional Budget Office‘s latest The Budget and Economic Outlook: From 2019 to 2029, there are $15.8 trillion US federal debt held by the public at the end of 2018.

Debt Growth Rate, not Level, Predicts Slowdown

Last week, Bank of England's Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent gave an insightful speech about debt dynamics.An important point Broadbent has illustrated is that a high absolute level of debt is...

Currency Zones through the last 50 years

The figure above is from a recent BIS working paper "A key currency view of global imbalances". It shows the currency geography as of four dates from the last days of Bretton Woods until now: 1968, 1985, 2001 and 2017.

IMF Growth Projections and Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts

In a recent IMF working paper "Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections", economist Klaus-Peter Hellwig examined IMF's World Economic Forecasts (WEO) and check if the forecast model suffer from the problem of overfitting.