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Cloud Y

Cloud Y
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The independent journalist who set up this website after realizing he is not smart enough to become a real economist.

IMF Growth Projections and Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts

In a recent IMF working paper "Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections", economist Klaus-Peter Hellwig examined IMF's World Economic Forecasts (WEO) and check if the forecast model suffer from the problem of overfitting.

Bank Equity and Banking Crises

In a recent study "Bank Equity and Banking Crises" by Matthew Baron (of Cornell University), Emil Verner (MIT Sloan), and Wei Xiong (Princeton University), the three economists developed a comprehensive database of bank equity prices and banking crises with a full-sample of 46 countries from 1870-2016. They try to understand the dynamic between bank equity decline and banking crises.

Japan exports (Dec 2018) recorded largest fall in two year

Japanese exports record a year-on-year drop of 3.8% in December 2018, the most substantial shrinkage since October 2016.

Nonbank Lending

In their recent working paper "Nonbank Lending", economists Sergey Chernenko, Isil Erel, and Robert Prilmeier provided an insightful overview of the sources and terms of private debt financing during the post-crisis period.

The Non‐Bank Credit Cycle

In a new working paper "The Non‐Bank Credit Cycle", researchers Esti Kemp, René van Stralen, Alexandros Vardoulakis, and Peter Wierts tried to look into the cyclical properties of non‐bank credit and its relevance for financial stability.

What comes after housing market bubble?

An investigation into the probability of a crash in house prices following a housing bubble

Why Does Credit Growth Crowd Out Real Economic Growth?

The faster the credit growth, the worse it is for real growth (output per worker). This is what Stephen G. Cecchetti and Enisse Kharroubi want to explain in their NBER working paper "Why Does Credit Growth Crowd Out Real Economic Growth?"

Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices

A new working paper from the IMF which tries to assess the impact of media sentiment on equity markets.

The sovereign-bank “doom loop”

Since the Euro crisis, investors and policymakers are well aware of the so-called "doom loop" between the banking system and the sovereign. That is, a crisis originating in the banking system (sovereign) will weaken the sovereign (banking system), which in turn will worsen the banking (sovereign) crisis itself.In a recent ECB discussion Paper "Managing the sovereign-bank nexus", the 7 economists - Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Caio Ferreira, Nigel Jenkinson, Luc Laeven, Alberto Martin, Camelia Minoiu, and Alexander Popov - coauthored the paper suggested that the banks and sovereigns are linked by three interacting channels:

The Missing Profits of Nations and Multinationals’ Extreme Profitability in Tax Havens

The economics of tax evasion is a growing field in academic economics. There are much new exciting research trying to understand the mechanism behind global tax evasion. "The Missing Profits of Nations” by Thomas R. Tørsløv, Ludvig S. Wier and Gabriel Zucman is one of the most noteworthy research on the dynamic behind global tax evasions.

Global Economy

Interviews

How to Maintain Prosperity for All | Interview with Roger Farmer

Roger Farmer explains : Why central banks should consider stock market intervention in stabilizing the employment markets?
The Midas Paradox Cover

Midas Paradox and the Great Depression | Q&A with Scott Sumner |

Welcome! This is the first installment of our interview series "Where is the General Theory of the 21st Century?""Where is the General Theory of...

Interview with Paul Romer on large scale Covid testing – Transcript

Edited transcript of our interview with Paul Romer, on why the US urgently to scale up testing for Covid-19 and why he thinks the covid-crisis amounts an intellectual failure
Cover Photo with Calomiris

Politics and the Economics of Banking Crises | Q&A with Charles Calomiris |

In this installment, we continue our discussion with Prof. Charles Calomiris, Henry Kaufman Professor of Financial Institutions at Columbia Business School. The topic of this installment is the missing role of politics in economics models of banking crises. We also discussed if Calomiris thinks macroeconomics has a similar problem.