Cloud Y
The independent journalist who set up this website after realizing he is not smart enough to become a real economist.
OECD governments borrowing expected to hit record $11tn
Gross borrowing of OECD governments from the markets is set to surpass $11tn this year. This would be a new record, above the current record of $10.9 trillion set in 2010.
Derivatives’s Credit Terms in Eurozone Tighten Further
The latest SESFOD shows that the credit terms offered to counterparties for both securities financing and OTC derivative transactions is further tightened.
Most of China’s Foreign Currency Credit are in USD
According to the data from BIS global liquidity indicators, as of September 2018, most foreign currency credits to China is still denominated with US dollar.
The Rise of Non-Bank US Dollar Credit Continues
The latest BIS global liquidity indicators showed that the share of Non-bank USD denominated credit continued its rising trend.
The Most Important Question Jay Powell Need to Answer – Where is the Saturated...
The most important question for the 30th Jan Fed meeting balance sheet policy, because it is also most underrated by the market.
How will the shutdown impact GDP growth?
The effect is shown differently on nominal and real GDP
How many US Public Debts out there? Who own them?
According to the data shown in the Congressional Budget Office‘s latest The Budget and Economic Outlook: From 2019 to 2029, there are $15.8 trillion US federal debt held by the public at the end of 2018.
Debt Growth Rate, not Level, Predicts Slowdown
Last week, Bank of England's Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent gave an insightful speech about debt dynamics.
An important point Broadbent has...
Currency Zones through the last 50 years
The figure above is from a recent BIS working paper "A key currency view of global imbalances". It shows the currency geography as of four dates from the last days of Bretton Woods until now: 1968, 1985, 2001 and 2017.
IMF Growth Projections and Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts
In a recent IMF working paper "Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections", economist Klaus-Peter Hellwig examined IMF's World Economic Forecasts (WEO) and check if the forecast model suffer from the problem of overfitting.
Interviews
How Household Debt affect the Global Business Cycles | Q&A with Atif Mian |
In this installment of the interview, Professor Mian explains the major findings in his recent research paper "Household Debt and Business Cycles World Wide" and the important implications of that paper.
Major Shifts in Macroeconomics Since the Great Recession | Interview with Atif Mian
Atif Mian, co-author of House of Debt, discusses what he thinks are the "revolutionary" changes in macroeconomic academia since the Great Recession.
Why the Fed should Keep a Sizeable Balance Sheet? | Q&A with Jeremy...
Jeremy Stein, former Federal Reserve governor, talks to us about his recent research “The Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet as a Financial-Stability Tool” and why the Fed should maintain a sizeable balance sheet.
What is Neo-Fisherian and FTPL? | Q&A with John Cochrane |
Cochrane discusses with us his view on the development in Macroeconomics since the Great Depression. He also explains what Neo-Fisherian and Fiscal Theory of Price Level are, and why they are important for understanding the current economic situation around the world.