Cloud Y
Cloud Y is an FRM-certified economics and finance journalist with 12+ years of experience covering global markets and macroeconomics. From interviewing Nobel laureates to breaking down M&A trends for major banks, Cloud’s work focuses on making complex economic data and concepts accessible. His writing has appeared in the Hoover Digest and iMoney.
This is why the Fed can afford to look through the Iran War energy...
The vacancy-to-unemployed ratio currently stands at 0.91 — meaning there are fewer open jobs than unemployed workers. At the peak of post-COVID labor market tightness, that ratio exceeded 2. This structural difference is the strongest argument the Fed has for looking through the Iran War energy shock.
Bank of Canada turns more ‘two-handed’ as ‘Stag’ vs ‘flation’ risks roughly balanced following...
The Bank of Canada on Wednesday held its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, which is exactly what the market expected. The focus is now on the central bank's assessment of the Iran War's impact on the economy.
Canada’s inflation rate slides to 1.8% amid a disinflationary base effect from last year’s sales tax holiday
Canada's inflation rate eased to 1.8% in February, the lowest since July last year.
The deceleration in headline CPI year-over-year growth rate can mostly be explained by the base effect resulted from the GST/HST holiday last year.
Canada unemployment rate rises back to 6.7% in February amid 83,900 job losses
Canada Labor Market——February 2026
Unemployment Rate: 6.7%;
Total Jobs MoM Change: -83,900;
Full-Time Jobs MoM Change: -108,400;
Part-Time Jobs MoM Change : 24,500
US goods trade deficit hits all-time high in 2025—What does it mean for Q4...
US trade deficit continues to widen in December after hitting recent year low in October. The total import was USD 70.3 billion higher than export in the last month of 2025, according to the US Census Bureau.
Planet Money Book—a long-time listener, first-time reader’s review
Rated: 4/5 Stars |
Planet Money Book is an excellent introduction to economics and finance and reminded me why it is good to have Planet Money in our life.
Understanding Hong Kong’s Exchange Fund Bills & Notes — Liquidity Flow Analysis
This page compiles the expected liquidity flows between Hong Kong Monetary Authority's (HKMA) Exchange Fund Bills and Notes (EFBNs) and the Aggregate Balance.
Estimates of these liquidity flows can provide a lens into the HKMA's liquidity management practices
US Trade Deficit Stabilizes as Post-Tariff ‘Front-Loading’ Fades
US trade deficit rebounded to USD 56.8 billion in November after recording a USD 29.2 billion shortfall, the smallest monthly since 2009, in the previous month, the US Census Bureau reported Thursday.
Bank of Canada Watch—Dec 2025 Meeting
The Bank of Canada on Wednesday decided to hold policy rate at 2.25% unchanged, as expected by markets. However, what is a notable is the Bank continues to show dovish bias given the recent rebound in economic data.
Reserve Management Purchases: The return of ‘non-QE’ asset purchases
Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) is a form of open market operations under which the Federal Reserve injects reserves into the banking system through "permanent" asset purchases with an aim to ensure the level of reserves remain "ample".
Canada Labor Market Watch
Canada's unemployment rate dropped substantially and unexpectedly to 6.5% in November, from 6.9% in the prior month, showing signs of a much-needed resiliency in the North American economy.
Standing Repo Facility Watch – Is the Fed’s ceiling tool working?
The Federal Reserve announced after the December meeting that it removed the aggregate limit on the Standing Repo Facility (SRF).
Repo rates spiked toward the end of the week, with SOFR and the Tri-party General Collateral rate (TGCR) reaching 4.12% and 4.08% on Friday, respectively, breaching the Federal Reserve's overnight interest rate target range.
Canada GDP Q3 2025
While GDP rebounded by 0.65% in Q3 (2.6% annualized), the expansion was driven almost entirely by a 2.2% drop in imports.
Canada GDP rebound masks lackluster domestic demand
The Canadian economy saw a significant rebound in the third quarter. A 0.65% expansion in the quarter was more than enough to recover the downwardly revised 0.47% contraction in the previous second quarter.
Why the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility Isn’t for Daily Use: An Explainer
"The [Standing Repo Facility (SRF)] rate is set at the top of the FOMC’s target range for the federal funds rate. This combination of an ample supply of reserves and an SRF rate at the top of the target range reduces the day-to-day reliance on the facility except during periods of significant upward pressure on rates resulting from strong liquidity demand or market stress," said John Williams
The Fed’s ‘leaky ceiling’ problem
Why is the Fed's SRF failing? Top Fed officials called the issue a "leaky ceiling" that doomed Quantitative Tightening (QT). Learn how low bank participation and the leaky floor analogy suggest new policy changes.
If the Fed ends QT too soon, it risks discrediting its ceiling tools
Analysts are expecting the Federal Reserve to announce the end of quantitative tightening (QT) at the upcoming meeting this week. The speculation is fueled by Chairman Jerome Powell's speech earlier this month in which he mentioned the supply of reserves may reach an "ample" level "in coming months."
Will QT finish before Powell’s chairman term ends?
Quantitative tightening (QT) may reach its end point "in the coming months," said Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in a speech last week.
What does it mean? Will QT finish before Powell's chairman term ends?
Bank of Canada drops interest rate to 2.5% — also a risk management cut
After holding the policy rate unchanged in the past three meetings, Bank of Canada on Wednesday resumed its rate cut cycle, lowering its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%.
September FOMC Meeting: The Potential Dissenters
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points this week. This has been the baseline market assumption since Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, in which he proclaimed, “the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance."
The question is, how many dissenting votes will Powell face in this meeting?
US PPI drops to 2.6% in August— a tale of two service prices
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand (PPI-FD) declined 0.1% MoM in Aug, bring the annual increase down to 2.6% from 3.1% in the previous month.
Canada unemployment rate surges to 7.1% in Aug
The unemployment rate in Canada has risen to 7.1% in August, the highest level since May 2016 outside of the pandemic era, StatCan reported Friday.
Canada GDP shrinks 0.4% in Q2, is it all gloomy?
Canada's GDP contracted by 0.4% (or 1.6% annualized) over the second quarter, amid a 7.5% (26.7% annualized) drop in exports as the impact of US-imposed tariffs started to bite.
Canada retail sales up 1.5% MoM in June, likely followed by 0.8% drop in...
Canada retail sales increased 1.46% month-over-month in June while core retail sales, which exclude gasoline and auto sales, was up 1.95%.
Hold on, Bank of England: The Fed is not so different from you on...
The Bank of England on Thursday released its latest Monetary Policy Report, announcing its decision to lower its policy rate by 25 bps to 4%. The report contains a lot of excellent analysis, including on the recent rise in food prices, the effect of trade war as well as a review of its quantitative tightening policy.
But one thing, a comparatively much less important thing, in the review just stuck in my mind...
Standing Repo Facility — the Fed’s soon-to-be most important tool?
Standing Repo Facility (SRF) is a relatively young Federal Reserve facility. Formally established as a permanent tool in July 2021, SRF allows banks to obtain overnight liquidity with high-quality collaterals like Treasuries through a repurchase agreement. Most people may not be familiar with this "obscure" Fed tool, but it is possible that SRF will soon become one of the Fed's most important tools.
Trump appointees will get Fed board majority when Powell is gone – and it...
Trump-appointed Fed governors will hold a board majority by the time Powell steps down as a governor. And that could matter a lot.
Hong Kong soaks up HKD 30 billion from interbank market to defend currency peg
Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened twice in the foreign exchange market on Thursday (July 3) to soak up a total of HKD 29.6 billion from the city's interbank liquidity market, as HKD exchange rate fell toward the weak end of its official trading band.
‘Unusually low’ Hong Kong interest rate is a policy choice*
A careful study of Hong Kong's currency peg that explain why the current low-interest rate environment can be interpreted as a result of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's policy choice.
Shadow Fed Chair — and Powell’s nuclear option to counter it
President Trump's plan to install a "Shadow Chair" months before Jerome Powell's term ends will definitely reshape US monetary policy — but it could face a surprising challenge from Powell himself.
Why is the Hong Kong-US interest rate spread so persistent? — Currency peg in...
A spread of over 3.5 percentage points between US and Hong Kong Interest rate persisted for close to two months and so far arbitrage has failed to close the gap, leading to discussion of whether Hong Kong's Linked Exchange System is failing. This article, however, will explore some technical factors behind this interesting interest rate gap.
Hong Kong dollar amid ‘Asian Financial Crisis in reverse’ — basic explainer
An explainer on how Hong Kong Linked Exchange Rate System works, what Aggregate Balance is, and how interest rate arbitrage help maintains Linked Exchange Rate System.
Where are the endpoints of QT? Ample Reserve System vs Demand-driven Floor System
Quantitative tightening (QT)—a process central banks use to reverse years of liquidity creation from quantitative easing (QE)—is concluding in many advanced economies. The central banks are growing confident that reserve levels in their financial systems are nearing their endpoints.
Where are the endpoints of QT and what come next?
First sighting of Trump II tariff revenue surge
The US government on April 22 received USD 11.7 billion from customer duties in a single day, the first time we can observe a substantial increase in import duties revenue resulted from the new of tariff from the second Trump administration.
Should Federal Reserve use scenario analysis to handle trade war uncertainty?
The Fed is currently in a "wait and see" mode in deciding what is the reaction to Trump's trade policy. But is it possible for the Fed to be a bit more proactive than merely saying "we will be able to update you further when we know more details"?
Enters scenario analysis.
No, PPI is not a measure of wholesale inflation
A standard perception of PPI is that it is a measure of "wholesale inflation", but the BLS told EconReporter that this interpretation of PPI is not at all correct.
Why FOMC mulling to cut ON RRP rate by 5 bps?
A relatively unexpected discussion among Federal Reserve officials during November FOMC meeting was that "some" committee members suggested a future consideration of lowering the ON RRP facility rate by 5 basis points. Why are they talking about that?
Dallas Fed’s Logan cites neutral rate uncertainty as reason to ‘proceed cautiously’ on rate...
Lorie Logan, president of Dallas Fed, expressed worry about uncertainty surrounding the exact level of neutral rate of interest and hinted at the risk that the Federal Reserve's policy rate might already near the point which further rate may starts to fuel inflation again
Some Bank of Canada officials worried half point cut might signal economic trouble
Some Bank of Canada officials expressed worries during the last policy meeting that an "unusual" 50-basis-point might be "interpreted as a sign of economic trouble" and led to expectations of further outsized cuts, the meeting deliberations summary shows.
US consumers continues to drive strong GDP growth
US GDP increased by more than 2.8% at an annualized rate in Q3, supported by continued acceleration the growth of personal consumption expenditures.
Eurozone economy shows resilience with 0.4% GDP increase in Q3
Eurozone GDP quarterly growth rate sped up to 0.4% in Q3, an upside surprise compared to an expectation of 0.2% increase, countering widespread worries that the currency bloc is sliding into economic stagnation.
Bank of Canada not sure about exact level of neutral rate, Macklem says
Bank of Canada isn't entirely sure what the country's natural rate of interest is and the central bank will have to discover it over time, said Governor Tiff Macklem.
Federal Reserve has never been this ‘confused’ about neutral rate
Federal Reserve decided to cut rate by an supersized 0.5 percentage point. The decision finally ended the weeks-long market debate of whether the central bank would cut 25 or 50 basis points. One important thing, though, didn't reach the headline: The Fed has never been this "confused" about where the natural rate should be.
Fed projects plan for front-loaded monetary easing, kicks off with 50 bps cut
The Federal Reserve lowered its fed fund rate target by 50 basis points to the range of 4.75 - 5%, with governor Michelle Bowman dissented the decision in favor of a smaller a quarter percentage point cut.
US Retail sales up just 0.1%, still beats expectations
Retail sales in the US increased just 0.05% on a monthly basis in August, down from the outsized 1.15% growth in July but still beats market expectation of -0.2%
Why Canada’s unemployment rate is rising so rapidly?
Canada's labor market has cooled down rapidly this year. Unemployment rate rose to 6.6% in August. The major issue is that the not enough job are created to digest the explosive population growth over the last few years and this integration problem is growing larger every month.
ECB cuts rate to 3.5% as it scales down growth forecast
The European Central Bank reduced the deposit facility rate, its policy interest rate anchor, by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.5%, as the central bank slightly lowered its economic growth forecast.
Canadian’s average carried over credit card balances highest in 14 years, Equifax reports
The average carried over credit card balances for Canadian consumers topped CAD 4,300 in Q2, reaching the highest level since 2007, Equifax Canada said in its latest Market Pulse Consumer Credit Trends and Insights Report.
Canada inflation slows further to 2.5% in July
Inflation in Canada decreased to 2.53% at an annual basis in July according to Statistics Canada's latest report
Fed’s Daly, Kashkari support rate cut talks in September meeting
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari are both open to discussions about cutting Fed Fund Rate target at the up coming Federal Reserve meeting
