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Yearly Archives: 2024
Why FOMC mulling to cut ON RRP rate by 5 bps?
A relatively unexpected discussion among Federal Reserve officials during November FOMC meeting was that "some" committee members suggested a future consideration of lowering the ON RRP facility rate by 5 basis points. Why are they talking about that?
Dallas Fed’s Logan cites neutral rate uncertainty as reason to ‘proceed cautiously’ on rate cut
Lorie Logan, president of Dallas Fed, expressed worry about uncertainty surrounding the exact level of neutral rate of interest and hinted at the risk that the Federal Reserve's policy rate might already near the point which further rate may starts to fuel inflation again
Some Bank of Canada officials worried half point cut might signal economic trouble
Some Bank of Canada officials expressed worries during the last policy meeting that an "unusual" 50-basis-point might be "interpreted as a sign of economic trouble" and led to expectations of further outsized cuts, the meeting deliberations summary shows.
US consumers continues to drive strong GDP growth
US GDP increased by more than 2.8% at an annualized rate in Q3, supported by continued acceleration the growth of personal consumption expenditures.
Eurozone economy shows resilience with 0.4% GDP increase in Q3
Eurozone GDP quarterly growth rate sped up to 0.4% in Q3, an upside surprise compared to an expectation of 0.2% increase, countering widespread worries that the currency bloc is sliding into economic stagnation.
Bank of Canada not sure about exact level of neutral rate, Macklem says
Bank of Canada isn't entirely sure what the country's natural rate of interest is and the central bank will have to discover it over time, said Governor Tiff Macklem.
Federal Reserve has never been this ‘confused’ about neutral rate
Federal Reserve decided to cut rate by an supersized 0.5 percentage point. The decision finally ended the weeks-long market debate of whether the central bank would cut 25 or 50 basis points. One important thing, though, didn't reach the headline: The Fed has never been this "confused" about where the natural rate should be.
Fed projects plan for front-loaded monetary easing, kicks off with 50 bps cut
The Federal Reserve lowered its fed fund rate target by 50 basis points to the range of 4.75 - 5%, with governor Michelle Bowman dissented the decision in favor of a smaller a quarter percentage point cut.
US Retail sales up just 0.1%, still beats expectations
Retail sales in the US increased just 0.05% on a monthly basis in August, down from the outsized 1.15% growth in July but still beats market expectation of -0.2%
Why Canada’s unemployment rate is rising so rapidly?
Canada's labor market has cooled down rapidly this year. Unemployment rate rose to 6.6% in August. The major issue is that the not enough job are created to digest the explosive population growth over the last few years and this integration problem is growing larger every month.
ECB cuts rate to 3.5% as it scales down growth forecast
The European Central Bank reduced the deposit facility rate, its policy interest rate anchor, by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.5%, as the central bank slightly lowered its economic growth forecast.
Canadian’s average carried over credit card balances highest in 14 years, Equifax reports
The average carried over credit card balances for Canadian consumers topped CAD 4,300 in Q2, reaching the highest level since 2007, Equifax Canada said in its latest Market Pulse Consumer Credit Trends and Insights Report.
Canada inflation slows further to 2.5% in July
Inflation in Canada decreased to 2.53% at an annual basis in July according to Statistics Canada's latest report
Fed’s Daly, Kashkari support rate cut talks in September meeting
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari are both open to discussions about cutting Fed Fund Rate target at the up coming Federal Reserve meeting
US CPI down to 2.9% in July as disinflation continues
US headline CPI down to 2.9% in July, lowest since March 2021
UK sees both unemployment rate, wage growth drop in June
Unemployment rate in the UK decreased to 4.2% at the three months to June, against a market expectation of rising from the May reading of 4.4% to 4.5%, the Office for National Statistics reported Tuesday.
Fed’s Bowman still sees ‘upside risks’ to US inflation
Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman is worried about reacceleration in cost of living, saying that she 'still see some upside risks to inflation'
Bank of Canada names ex-central bankers, University of Calgary professor as external experts for Covid era policy review
Ex-Bank of Spain Governor Pablo Hernández de Cos, ex-BoE official Kristin Forbes and Trevor Tombe, professor at the University of Calgary, will for an external expert team to conduct independent assessment on Bank of Canada's review on Covid-era exceptional actions
US initial jobless claims falls to 233,000, lower than expected
The number of people filed their initial claim for unemployment insurance benefits in the US fell to 233,000 in the week ending August 3.
Bank of Canada July meeting minutes reveal growing concerns on slowing labor market, consumption
Bank of Canada officials were increasingly concerned about potential risk of consumption slowdown amid growing slack in the labor market and excess supply in the economy when they cut interest rate during July 24 meeting, according to the central bank's summary of deliberations.
US PCE inflation drops to 2.5% as disinflationary trend continues
Inflation in the US cooled off further to 2.5% over the year to the end of June, according to the latest reading of US Bureau of Economic Analysis's PCE price index.
US GDP grows at 2.8% in Q2 as consumer spending remains strong
US GDP grew at a 2.8% annualized rate in Q2, supported by acceleration in consumer spending, increase in nonresidential fixed investment as well as an upturn in private inventory investment
UK retail sales drops 1.2% in June due to poor weather, election uncertainty
Monthly growth rate of UK retail sales volume fell 1.2% in June, after a 2.9% increase in the previous month.
Canada inflation drops back to 2.7% in June
Annual inflation rate in Canada eased back to less than 2.7% in June after a upshot in the previous month, according to Statistics Canada's CPI report.
US nonfarm payroll beats expectations in June amid signs of cooling off
US nonfarm payroll increased by 206,000 in June, beating market expectation of 190,000, amid signs that job growth in cooling off as the the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down the May and April by a combined 111,000 in its report released Friday.
US Job openings increases to 8.1 million in May, JOLT report shows
Job openings increased to 8.14 million in May while the number of hirings in the month was 5.78 million
US PCE price index shows zero monthly inflation in May
US PCE price index showed 0% monthly inflation in May, bolstering market narrative that consumption sentiment has weakened in Q2 and helped easing inflationary pressure in the US economy.
US large banks pass Fed’s stress test with credit card, commercial loans projected to generate more losses
The Federal Reserve revealed US large banks passed the 2024 banking system stress test.
Canada inflation rebounds to 2.9% in May
CPI inflation in Canada rebounded to 2.9% YoY and 0.31% MoM in May 2024
BoE holds rate at 5.25% with ‘some’ officials signal eagerness to cut
Bank of England held its policy interest rate at 5.25% with a 7-2 vote amongst officials at its Monetary Policy Committee.
US CPI shows zero inflation in May
US CPI grew 0% in May as the yearly growth rate dropped to 3.27%; core inflation, which stripped out food and energy prices, rose 0.2% and the yearly rate decreased to 3.42%
US gains 272,000 jobs in May, blows past expectations
US gained 272,000 nonfarm employment in May blew past market expectations of an 185,000 increase. Meanwhile, unemployment rate rose to 4%, which is the highest level since November 2021.
Bank of Canada cuts rate by 0.25 ppts to 4.75%
The Bank of Canada lowered its target for overnight rate by 0.25 ppts to 4.75%, making it one of the advanced economy central banks to cut rates before Federal Reserve does.
US PCE inflation holds at 2.7% in April as market expected
US PCE inflation held at 2.7% YoY in April 2024 while core inflation maintained its pace at 2.8% for the third months,
How to make US inflation chart by pulling data from BLS API with Python
An important question is how do we get the series IDs for the data you need. The short answer is through BLS's Data Finder
US core CPI rises 3.6% as expected
US CPI rose 3.35% in the year to April, as expected by analysts. Meanwhile, core CPI, which strips out prices of food and energy, increased 3.61%, also as market expected.
US April Jobs Report – Unemployment rate rises back to 3.9% as Nonfarm Payroll increase lower than expected
Nonfarm payroll increased 175,000 in April, a significant reduction from 315,000 in March and fell short of the market expectation of 243,000. Meanwhile, US unemployment rebounded to 3.9%
US labor market cools down further with job openings, hires, quits all drop in March
The March US job opening and labor turnover (JOLT) report shows that job opening rate, hire rate and quit rate all dropped marginally in March, showing further cool down in the US labor market.
Bank of England will likely retire Fan chart, Andrew Bailey says
Bank of England's Fan charts would probably be replaced by "alternative scenario" projections, which illustrate how policy might react under different economic developments.
UK inflation cools to 3.4% amid service inflation slowdown
Core inflation also slowed to 4.5%, compared to a year earlier.
Canada inflation slows further to 2.8%; rent continues to rise
Canada's CPI rose 2.78% in February, a further slowdown from the 2.86% increase in the January
Measuring Federal Reserve officials’ secret disagreement behind locked doors of FOMC meetings
Dissent votes in Federal Reserve policy meetings are rare, accounting for only 6.37% of the votes between 1976 and 2017. However, opting not to vote against the FOMC consensus doesn't necessarily mean committee members don't "disagree" with it.
Canada unemployment rate rises to 5.8% as labor force continues to grow
Statistic Canada on Friday reported that Canada's unemployment rate rose to 5.8%,, reaching the highest since the start of 2022.
Bank of Canada holds rate at 5%, cites persistent underlying inflation
Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 5% after its March monetary policy meeting, citing "risks to the outlook for inflation, particularly the persistence in underlying inflation."
Is tipflation even part of inflation?
Or, to frame the question in a more technical way: is tipflation even counted as part of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation?
Canada inflation drops to 2.9% in January
Canada's headline CPI rose 2.9% in January, hitting Bank of Canada's inflation-control target range of 1% - 3% for the first time since March 2021.
UK retail sales rebounds 3.4% in Jan after dismal Christmas figures
UK retail volume rose 3.4% MoM in January, after it dropped by 3.3% in December
US payroll growth in Jan beats expectations
US nonfarm payroll increased 353,000 and Unemployment rate as 3.7% in January
