US Trade Deficit Stabilizes as Post-Tariff ‘Front-Loading’ Fades

US trade deficit rebounded to USD 56.8 billion in November after recording a USD 29.2 billion shortfall, the smallest monthly since 2009, in the previous month, the US Census Bureau reported Thursday.

• The October figure was likely a result of the companies front-loading their imports in the first half of the year and subsequently selling off their outsized inventory since then. This reduction in import helped narrow the trade deficit temporarily.
• In November, US external trade began to revert to a level closer to “normal” — The USD 56.8 billion figure is much closer to the average monthly deficit of the previous four years, which ranged from USD 53.1 billion to USD 73.3 billion.
• Accumulated data from January to November shows that 2025 is an outlier. Unlike previous years, the 2025 deficit follows a distinct curve: an unusually large trade deficit in the first three months, which preceded the “reciprocal” tariff announcement in April, followed by a sharp contraction as inventories were utilized.

The chart also indicates that the total January-to-November trade deficit remains higher in 2025 than in 2024, showing an increase of about USD 33 billion.