US nonfarm payroll beats expectations in June amid signs of cooling off

Nonfarm payroll: 206,000

(May:218,000 ; 3-month average: 177,000)

US nonfarm payroll increased by 206,000 in June, beating market expectation of 190,000, amid signs that job growth in cooling off as the the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down the May and April by a combined 111,000 in its report released Friday.

Unemployment rate: 4.1%

(May:4%)

Unemployment rose 0.1ppt for the third consecutive months, bring the figure to 4.1%, above analyst consensus of 4%. The jobless rate has increased by half a percentage point over the past year.

Average hourly earnings growth YoY: 3.86%

(May:4.05%) ; MoM: 0.29% (May:0.4%)

Another sign of continued cooling is the growth rate of average hourly earnings which fell to 3.86%, the lowest level since May 2021. Annualized three-month hourly earnings growth also dropped to 3.62%.

Labor force participation rate: 62.6%

(May:62.5%)

Labor Force participation little changed in June, rose just 0.1ppt to 62.6% and continued remain in the range of 62.5%-62.7% since the start of the year. If we look at prime-age participation rate, we a upward momentum as the rate rose 0.1ppt for three months in a row.

The figures appears to support Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comment on Tuesday morning that the US labor market is “cooling off appropriately” and going to the right direction of not heating up again.