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Federal Reserve has never been this ‘confused’ about neutral rate

Federal Reserve decided to cut rate by an supersized 0.5 percentage point. The decision finally ended the weeks-long market debate of whether the central bank would cut 25 or 50 basis points. One important thing, though, didn't reach the headline: The Fed has never been this "confused" about where the natural rate should be.

Fed projects plan for front-loaded monetary easing, kicks off with 50 bps cut

The Federal Reserve lowered its fed fund rate target by 50 basis points to the range of 4.75 - 5%, with governor Michelle Bowman dissented the decision in favor of a smaller a quarter percentage point cut.

Fed’s Daly, Kashkari support rate cut talks in September meeting

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari are both open to discussions about cutting Fed Fund Rate target at the up coming Federal Reserve meeting

Fed’s Bowman still sees ‘upside risks’ to US inflation

Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman is worried about reacceleration in cost of living, saying that she 'still see some upside risks to inflation'

US large banks pass Fed’s stress test with credit card, commercial loans projected to...

The Federal Reserve revealed US large banks passed the 2024 banking system stress test.

Measuring Federal Reserve officials’ secret disagreement behind locked doors of FOMC meetings

Dissent votes in Federal Reserve policy meetings are rare, accounting for only 6.37% of the votes between 1976 and 2017. However, opting not to vote against the FOMC consensus doesn't necessarily mean committee members don't "disagree" with it.

Fed to let Bank Term Funding Program expires on March 11

The US central bank also made an adjustment of the program's terms, setting minimum interest rate level at the interest of reserve balance, effective immediately, to block an arbitrage opportunity that banks have been taking advantage of.

Why Fed projects to cut rates next year even it expects failure to reach...

Inflation projections by Fed officials show that PCE inflation will not reach 2% by the end of 2025. Why the Fed expects to cut rate next year then?

US inflation eases further in February as energy prices drop, PCE index shows

Inflation in the US showed further signs of easing as the yearly growth of core PCE price index slowed to 4.6% in February, while the headline number increased by 5%.

Fed-preferred PCE price index accelerated in January

Core PCE inflation rose 4.7% in January YoY, beating expectation of 4.4% increase. The Fed-preferred price index rose 0.6% MoM compared to the market expectation of 0.5%.

Global Economy

Interviews

Atif Mian WITGT Cover

Major Shifts in Macroeconomics Since the Great Recession | Interview with Atif Mian

Atif Mian, co-author of House of Debt, discusses what he thinks are the "revolutionary" changes in macroeconomic academia since the Great Recession.
Cover Photo with Calomiris

Politics and the Economics of Banking Crises | Q&A with Charles Calomiris |

In this installment, we continue our discussion with Prof. Charles Calomiris, Henry Kaufman Professor of Financial Institutions at Columbia Business School. The topic of this installment is the missing role of politics in economics models of banking crises. We also discussed if Calomiris thinks macroeconomics has a similar problem.
John Cochrane Cover Photo

Fiscal Theory of Price Level and State of Macroeconomics | Q&A with John Cochrane...

John Cochrane talks about Fiscal Theory of Price Level and how can we apply this theory on the current macroeconomy.

How to Maintain Prosperity for All | Interview with Roger Farmer

Roger Farmer explains : Why central banks should consider stock market intervention in stabilizing the employment markets?