What comes after housing market bubble?
An investigation into the probability of a crash in house prices following a housing bubble
IMF Growth Projections and Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts
In a recent IMF working paper "Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections", economist Klaus-Peter Hellwig examined IMF's World Economic Forecasts (WEO) and check if the forecast model suffer from the problem of overfitting.
Performance of Macroeconomics is not that bad! | Q&A with Ricardo Reis |
In the interview, Ricardo Reis discuss with us his latest research project - "Reservism", the study of the role of reserves on central bank balance sheets and their implications for central bank solvency, quantitative easing, and the ability to control inflation.
Fed’s swap lines help easing Covid-era global dollar shortage
Countries with swap line arrangement with Federal Reserve, be it the standing ones or temporary, saw smaller increases in spread during the initial pandemic stress period.
Why Does Credit Growth Crowd Out Real Economic Growth?
The faster the credit growth, the worse it is for real growth (output per worker). This is what Stephen G. Cecchetti and Enisse Kharroubi want to explain in their NBER working paper "Why Does Credit Growth Crowd Out Real Economic Growth?"
Fiscal Theory of Price Level and State of Macroeconomics | Q&A with John Cochrane...
John Cochrane talks about Fiscal Theory of Price Level and how can we apply this theory on the current macroeconomy.
Midas Paradox and the Great Depression | Q&A with Scott Sumner |
Welcome! This is the first installment of our interview series "Where is the General Theory of the 21st Century?"
"Where is the General Theory of...
