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Yearly Archives: 2019

How will the shutdown impact GDP growth?

The effect is shown differently on nominal and real GDP

How many US Public Debts out there? Who own them?

According to the data shown in the Congressional Budget Office‘s latest The Budget and Economic Outlook: From 2019 to 2029, there are $15.8 trillion US federal debt held by the public at the end of 2018.

Debt Growth Rate, not Level, Predicts Slowdown

Last week, Bank of England's Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent gave an insightful speech about debt dynamics.An important point Broadbent has illustrated is that a high absolute level of debt is not the most worrying sign of economic slowdown. It is...

Currency Zones through the last 50 years

The figure above is from a recent BIS working paper "A key currency view of global imbalances". It shows the currency geography as of four dates from the last days of Bretton Woods until now: 1968, 1985, 2001 and 2017.

IMF Growth Projections and Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts

In a recent IMF working paper "Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections", economist Klaus-Peter Hellwig examined IMF's World Economic Forecasts (WEO) and check if the forecast model suffer from the problem of overfitting.

Bank Equity and Banking Crises

In a recent study "Bank Equity and Banking Crises" by Matthew Baron (of Cornell University), Emil Verner (MIT Sloan), and Wei Xiong (Princeton University), the three economists developed a comprehensive database of bank equity prices and banking crises with a full-sample of 46 countries from 1870-2016. They try to understand the dynamic between bank equity decline and banking crises.

Japan exports (Dec 2018) recorded largest fall in two year

Japanese exports record a year-on-year drop of 3.8% in December 2018, the most substantial shrinkage since October 2016.

Nonbank Lending

In their recent working paper "Nonbank Lending", economists Sergey Chernenko, Isil Erel, and Robert Prilmeier provided an insightful overview of the sources and terms of private debt financing during the post-crisis period.

The Non‐Bank Credit Cycle

In a new working paper "The Non‐Bank Credit Cycle", researchers Esti Kemp, René van Stralen, Alexandros Vardoulakis, and Peter Wierts tried to look into the cyclical properties of non‐bank credit and its relevance for financial stability.

What comes after housing market bubble?

An investigation into the probability of a crash in house prices following a housing bubble

Economy