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Yearly Archives: 2019
How will the shutdown impact GDP growth?
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The effect is shown differently on nominal and real GDP
How many US Public Debts out there? Who own them?
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According to the data shown in the Congressional Budget Office‘s latest The Budget and Economic Outlook: From 2019 to 2029, there are $15.8 trillion US federal debt held by the public at the end of 2018.
Debt Growth Rate, not Level, Predicts Slowdown
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Last week, Bank of England's Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent gave an insightful speech about debt dynamics.An important point Broadbent has illustrated is that a high absolute level of debt is not the most worrying sign of economic slowdown. It is...
Currency Zones through the last 50 years
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The figure above is from a recent BIS working paper "A key currency view of global imbalances". It shows the currency geography as of four dates from the last days of Bretton Woods until now: 1968, 1985, 2001 and 2017.
IMF Growth Projections and Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts
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In a recent IMF working paper "Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections", economist Klaus-Peter Hellwig examined IMF's World Economic Forecasts (WEO) and check if the forecast model suffer from the problem of overfitting.
Bank Equity and Banking Crises
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In a recent study "Bank Equity and Banking Crises" by Matthew Baron (of Cornell University), Emil Verner (MIT Sloan), and Wei Xiong (Princeton University), the three economists developed a comprehensive database of bank equity prices and banking crises with a full-sample of 46 countries from 1870-2016. They try to understand the dynamic between bank equity decline and banking crises.
Japan exports (Dec 2018) recorded largest fall in two year
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Japanese exports record a year-on-year drop of 3.8% in December 2018, the most substantial shrinkage since October 2016.
Nonbank Lending
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In their recent working paper "Nonbank Lending", economists Sergey Chernenko, Isil Erel, and Robert Prilmeier provided an insightful overview of the sources and terms of private debt financing during the post-crisis period.
The Non‐Bank Credit Cycle
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In a new working paper "The Non‐Bank Credit Cycle", researchers Esti Kemp, René van Stralen, Alexandros Vardoulakis, and Peter Wierts tried to look into the cyclical properties of non‐bank credit and its relevance for financial stability.
What comes after housing market bubble?
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An investigation into the probability of a crash in house prices following a housing bubble
Global Economy
Interviews
Interview with Paul Romer on large scale Covid testing – Transcript
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Edited transcript of our interview with Paul Romer, on why the US urgently to scale up testing for Covid-19 and why he thinks the covid-crisis amounts an intellectual failure
Global Inequality and Kuznets Waves | Q&A with Branko Milanovic |
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Welcome to the latest installment of our interview series “Where is the General Theory of the 21st Century?”“Where is the General Theory of the...
What is Neo-Fisherian and FTPL? | Q&A with John Cochrane |
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Cochrane discusses with us his view on the development in Macroeconomics since the Great Depression. He also explains what Neo-Fisherian and Fiscal Theory of Price Level are, and why they are important for understanding the current economic situation around the world.
How to Maintain Prosperity for All | Interview with Roger Farmer
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Roger Farmer explains : Why central banks should consider stock market intervention in stabilizing the employment markets?